“Money lenders trust America so implicitly that they generally dismiss the risk it won't pay its debts. But in the U.S. capital, fears are growing that political dysfunction might trigger the unthinkable.” Story at…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/24/us-usa-fiscal-debt-analysis-idUSBRE98N17S20130924?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews
This just looks like fear-mongering to me. If our bond payments are a little
late…forgetaboudit…the check’s in the mail.
FED TAPER MORE DISTANT (CNBC)
“Edward Dempsey, chief investment officer of Pension Partners, said
despite intense speculation over when the tapering will happen, in his view it
could get pushed out for some time. ‘There's a school of thought that thinks
maybe never,’ said Dempsey, referring to the potential onset of tapering. ‘The Fed stared into the deflationary abyss
and backed away. They are lowering their growth forecasts, they are telling us
that economic growth going forward is weaker than they previously thought,’ he
added.” Story at…http://www.cnbc.com/id/101060437
I saw several similar stories with logic as follows: The Fed won’t taper in October because the
data won’t be materially different than September. Bernanke doesn’t want to
Taper and tie the next FED chair’s hand so forget December. They won’t taper in
the first meeting after Yellen (the presumptive choice for the new Fed
chair) takes over either. Yellen is a QE supporter. So, Taper is way
off.
BANK OF
AMERICA LEHMAN WARNS S&P VULNERABLE TO DEEPER CORRECTION (ON A CLOSE BELOW
1700) (Zero Hedge)
“…a close below 1700 (on the S&P 500) would confirm a
near-term top and a correction to 1653…” Story from Zero Hedge at…http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-24/bofaml-warns-sp-500-vulnerable-deeper-correction-close-below-1700
CHART TALK
I am not really much of a chart guy, but there are times when some basic
chart analysis is worthwhile.
The Index is now trading below its long-term lower trend line and that
is bearish, especially after breaking back above the trend line in August. The shorter term trend line is shown with red
dashed-lines and it is much flatter than the previous trend so the upward
movement has slowed appreciably.
The index has also breached the 1700 level and per the Bank of America
article above, that is bearish too.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGSPC+Basic+Chart
Annotated by NTSM
MARKET REPORT
Wednesday, the S&P finished down 0.27% to 1693 (rounded) at the close.
VIX fell 0.5% to 14.01.Wednesday, the S&P finished down 0.27% to 1693 (rounded) at the close.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks advancing on the NYSE dropped from 54% to 53% at the close. (A number above 50% for the 10-day average is generally good news for the market.)
New-highs outpaced new-lows today, Wednesday,
leaving the spread (new-hi minus new-low) at +83 (it was +112 Tuesday), but the
10-day moving average of change in the spread is still negative at minus 3.
Similar to yesterday, I expect tomorrow to
be an up-day. 51% of stocks advanced Wednesday
at the close today and new-hi/new-low data was also positive on the day even
though the index was down. This is the 2nd
day for this unusual occurrence. The
internals may carryover till tomorrow and push the S&P 500 up for the day.
Market Internals are positive on the market for
this short term indicator.
LAST HOUR OF TRADING
The last hour of trading is when the Pros
play and, in theory, that’s the smart money. In the last 10-days the S&P 500 index is
up 0.23%. Over the last 10-days the
index has fallen 1.1% in the last hour of trading. That divergence between the market and the
pro’s opinion of the market may be a negative, but I still haven’t figured out
if this is a valid indicator.
NTSM
Wednesday, the overall long-term NTSM
analysis remains HOLD at the close.
My sentiment indicator (5-dMA of %-bulls in
selected Guggenheim/Rydex funds) hit 67% Wednesday at the close. That’s a very high number and usually
indicates trouble for the market. With
the FED still conducting full-on QE, it is hard to know if the indicator means
anything.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500
-1540). The NTSM system sold at
1575 on 16 April. (This is just another
reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am
under-performing my own system by about 2%!)
I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested. If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d
only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It
also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market
goes up. No system is perfect.
