“The Latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning [Tuesday]…The 79.7 reading is slightly below the 79.9 forecast by Investing.com. The index is now 2.5 points off its five-and-a-half year interim high set in June. Or, to put it another way, the index is 10.9 points below the December 2007 pre-recession level.” Good discussion and analysis from Advisor Perspectives at…
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Conference-Board-Consumer-Confidence-Index.php
STOCKS ABOUT TO PLUNGE – WELLS FARGO SRATEGIST (MSN
Money, Friday 20 Sep 2013)
“…on Thursday's "Futures Now," Adams reiterated
her call that the index [S&P 500] would close out the year at 1,440. "Our target is based on
fundamentals, "Adams insisted. "We're basing our target on typical
valuation measures, given the level of interest rates and also on earnings
forecasts. And that's why our target is relatively low."… "simply the fact that we moved from 1.6 [percent] on the 10-year Treasury rate to now the 2.7 [percent] range is a potential tremendous shock over the next six months," Adams contended…Couple the rise in rates with slow earnings growth, and Adams believes the market is in for a very tricky fall. "We're going to have to face the music come October," she said.” Story at…
http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post--stocks-about-to-plunge-wells-fargo-strategist-warns
US STOCKS AT RISK - GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN LOOMING
(Bloomberg)
“Hardening positions on the federal budget and borrowing
limit, and recent political setbacks suffered by both PresidentBarack Obama and Republican congressional
leaders as they go into the fight, are raising the odds of a government
shutdown, debt default or near-miss that could roil equities markets. ‘We are in for another ugly confrontation,’
said Howard Ward, the chief investment officer for growth equity at Rye, New
York-based Gamco Investors Inc., which oversees about $40 billion. ‘Even though
everyone knows the impasse will be short-lived, it is a sad reminder of how
dysfunctional Washington has become. It will be a catalyst for taking profits
after the recent run-up.’” Story from
Bloomberg at…http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-23/stocks-at-risk-with-government-shutdown-looming-before-a-default.html
Having gone through this negotiation not long ago, I
don’t see the markets getting too concerned over the Political maneuvering
although the jaw-boning will be tiresome.
MARKET REPORT
Tuesday, the S&P finished down 0.26% to 1697 (rounded) at the close.
VIX fell 1.6% to 14.08.Tuesday, the S&P finished down 0.26% to 1697 (rounded) at the close.
Bank of America had a report out that if the S&P 500
closed below 1700, expect more trouble.
I’ll post it tomorrow if possible.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks
advancing on the NYSE remained 54% at the close. (A number above 50% for the 10-day average is
generally good news for the market.)
New-highs outpaced new-lows today, Tuesday,
leaving the spread (new-hi minus new-low) at +112 (it was +44 Monday), but the
10-day moving average of change in the spread is still negative at minus 6.
I expect tomorrow to be an up-day. 55% of stocks advanced Tuesday at the close
and new-hi/new-low data was also positive on the day even though the index was
down. The internals may carryover till
tomorrow and push the S&P 500 up for the day.
10-day averages aren’t as clear cut for the
Market Internals, so the Internals are neutral on the market overall for this
short term indicator.
NTSM
Tuesday, the overall long-term NTSM analysis
remains HOLD at the close.MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500 -1540). The NTSM system sold at 1575 on 16 April. (This is just another reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am under-performing my own system by about 2%!) I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested. If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market goes up. No system is perfect.
