“Confidence among U.S. consumers declined [slightly] in April from a six-year high as Americans became less enthusiastic about the economy and labor market.” Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-29/consumer-confidence-index-in-u-s-decreased-to-82-3-in-april.html
ALL FINANCIAL ASSETS OVERVALUED (CNBC)
"The quantitative easing and the excess money and
the low interest rates have driven pricing up of almost all financial assets to
beyond what their intrinsic value might be," Joshua Harris, co-founder and
chief investment officer of $161 billion private equity firm Apollo Global
Management, said Monday at the Milken Institute's Global Conference in Los
Angeles.” Story at…http://www.cnbc.com/id/101620735
PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE – WE’RE IN THE MID-TERM YEAR
(Marketwatch)
"Stephen Suttmeier, technical research analyst at Bank of
America Merrill Lynch… points out there’s a more than 23% chance of the broader
stock market shedding a fifth of its value sometime before October…‘The Mid-term year has a higher-than-average risk of a
pullback of 20% or more during the 6-month periods beginning in January through
August, especially during the March-August and April-September periods.’" –
Wallace Witkowski, “The Tell” at…
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/04/29/risk-of-20-stock-correction-highest-until-october-b-of-a-s-suttmeier/
GARTMAN OUT OF THE MARKET AGAIN (CNBC)
“Dennis Gartman, editor of The Gartman
Letter, is…starting out this week back on the sidelines. ‘I do not like switching back and forth. It's not fun,’
he said on CNBC's ‘Fast Money.’ ‘I would rather be
consistently bullish. It's still a bull market and the worst that I'll become
is neutral of stocks.’" Story at… http://www.cnbc.com/id/101621370
MARKET REPORT
Tuesday, the S&P 500 was UP about 0.5% to 1878 (rounded).
VIX was DOWN about 2% to 13.71.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note fell slightly to 2.69%
at the close.The Bond Ghouls still seem to have concerns about the stock market.
I’m going to leave this posted until the S&P 500
breaks thru the old highs: The S&P 500 has closed in the vicinity of 1880
about 8 to 10 times since 31 December.
The index has only closed above 1880 3-times and then only about ½-%
higher. It needs to punch higher or the
correction will be back.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks advancing on the NYSE
decreased to 57% at the close. (A number
above 50% for the 10-day average is generally good news for the market.) New-highs
outpaced new-lows Tuesday. The spread
(new-highs minus new-lows was +83. (It
was +42 Monday.) The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +7. In other words, over the last 10-days, on
average, the spread has INCREASED by 7 each day. The smoothed 10-dMA of
up-volume increased today. The internals
remained positive on the market.
NTSM
The NTSM analytical model for LONG-TERM MONEY remained
HOLD Tuesday. Sentiment climbed to 81%-bulls
(5-dMA of {bulls/(bulls+bears)} for funds invested in selected Rydex/Guggenheim
funds. This is a very high number and on a statistical basis Sentiment is now negative. The VIX, Price & Volume indicators are all
neutral.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I increased my stock allocation to 50% invested in stocks
on 26 March because of the NTSM indicators turned positive Monday (24 Mar) at
the close. 50% in stocks is fully
invested for me, given my age (semi-retired) and the risk inherent in today’s
stock market. I am watching closely to see if it is time to reduce my long-term
stock holdings.
