“New home sales declined 14.5% in March…Affordability concerns from higher mortgage rates and higher new home prices could stall further sales.” Full story at…
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/newhom.htm
Housing is considered to be an important predictor for recession.
HOUSING DISAPPOINTS - 2 (Zerohedge)
“Q. Why did new home sales crash in all regions except
the traditionally coldest, wettest, and snowiest Northeast, where sales rose?A. Uhm, because it obviously snowed everywhere except in the Northeast.
And there you have it: spin 101 for braindead zombies and vacuum tubes. Commentary and chart at…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-23/explaining-horrendous-home-sales-report-it-snowed-everywhere-northeast
CHINA MAUFACTURING CONTRACTS AGAIN (Global Economic Perspectives)
“Chinese manufacturing remains in contraction for 2014.
Output and new orders were down for the 4th consecutive month, but at a
slightly reduced pace according to the HSBC Flash China
Manufacturing PMI.”
Commentary at…http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/04/china-manufacturing-output-and-new.htmlChina is important for the world’s economy.
DIVERGENCE IN THE % OF STOCKS ABOVE THEIR 200dMA
As shown below, the percentage of stocks above their
200-day moving average has been declining while the NYSE Composite Index has
been advancing. This divergence appears
to be trouble for the markets, especially if the percentage drops below its
mean of 61 and continues down. 
http://www.indexindicators.com/charts/nyse-vs-nyse-stocks-above-200d-sma-params-3y-x-x-x/
Recession? Ask trucking…
AMERICAN TRUCKING ASSOCIATION TRUCK TONNAGE (ATA)
“The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally
adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 0.6% in March…Compared
with March 2013, the SA index increased 3.1%, which is the largest
year-over-year gain of 2014. During the first quarter, tonnage plunged 2.5%
from the previous quarter, which was the worst quarter-to-quarter reading since
the economic recovery began in the third quarter of 2009. Compared with the
first quarter 2013, tonnage rose 2.3%.” Press release at…http://www.truckline.com/article.aspx?uid=c520242a-56be-4987-a66f-612234da0a27
No recession indication here. Investors continue to assume no recession: cyclical stocks in the Morgan Stanley cyclical index are outperforming the S&P 500 Index for every period from 2-weeks to 1-year.
GARTMAN BULLISH AGAIN (Marketwatch)
“After making public nearly three weeks ago that he moved
his equity exposure to zero after a bad day on the markets, Dennis Gartman says
he’s back to being “pleasantly bullish” on stocks… Gartman says if he changes
his position on stocks anytime soon it will be to lift stock exposure rather
than cut back, saying, there’s no point in fighting ‘the tape nor the Fed.’”
Story at…http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/04/22/dennis-gartman-goes-from-scared-to-pleasantly-bullish-on-stocks/
I like Dennis. I bumped into him at a local restaurant and he was quite gracious. His comments to Marketwatch mirrored his comments on CNBC: ““I’ve been at this 40 years, and the one thing that makes sense in a bull market is that really long, pleasantly long and neutral are the only three positions you can have,” he told MarketWatch in an interview.”
MARKET REPORT
Wednesday, the S&P 500 was DOWN about 0.2% to 1875 (rounded).
VIX was UP about 0.6% to 13.27. The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note fell to 2.69% at the close.
The Bond Ghouls aren’t sure the correction is over.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks advancing on the NYSE
declined to 57% at the close. (A number above
50% for the 10-day average is generally good news for the market.) New-highs
outpaced new-lows Wednesday. The spread
(new-highs minus new-lows was +129. (It
was +124 Tuesday.) The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +11. In other words, over the last 10-days, on
average, the spread has INCREASED by 11 each day. The smoothed 10-dMA of
up-volume remains UP as of Wednesday. The
internals remained positive on the market.
NTSM
The NTSM analytical model for LONG-TERM MONEY remained
HOLD Wednesday. Sentiment has fallen to
77%-bulls (5-dMA of {bulls/(bulls+bears)} for funds invested in selected
Rydex/Guggenheim funds. This is a very high number, but on a statistical basis
Sentiment is now neutral. The VIX, Price
& Volume indicators are all neutral.
I increased my stock allocation to 50% invested in stocks
on 26 March because of the NTSM indicators turned positive Monday (24 Mar) at
the close. I am watching closely to see
if it is time to reduce my long-term stock holdings.
