“The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment rose more than expected last week, but the underlying trend remained consistent with a strengthening labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 304,000 for the week ended Feb. 7, the Labor Department said on Thursday.” Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102419900
WEST COAST PORTS TO SHUT DOWN AGAIN (CNBC)
“Vessel operations will be suspended at U.S. West Coast ports over the coming long weekend, the Pacific Maritime Association said Wednesday. ‘Last week, PMA made a comprehensive contract offer designed to bring these talks to conclusion,’ PMA spokesman Wade Gates said. ‘The ILWU responded with demands they knew we could not meet, and continued slowdowns that will soon bring West Coast ports to gridlock.’ Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102413710
Labor talks stalled. Speaking of stalled…
An hour after CNBC reported an agreement in principle last night, we have the following:
GREECE & EURO ZONE: NO DEAL (Reuters, 9:11 PM EST)
“Greece's new leftist government and its international creditors failed to agree on a way forward on the country's unpopular bailout and will try again on Monday, with time running out for a financing deal. In seven hours of crisis talks in Brussels that ended after midnight, euro zone finance ministers were unable to agree even a joint statement…” Story at…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/12/us-eurozone-greece-idUSKBN0LF1CE20150212
HIGH YIELD NOT DONE YET (Advisor Perspectives)
“Fears about higher US interest rates, rising defaults and a multi-month decline in the price of oil have injected a dose of high anxiety into the high-yield market. But we still think investors will be better off this year if they stand their ground and stay invested.” - Gershon Distenfeld, AllianceBernstein. Story at…
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/20150211-alliancebernstein-don-t-count-high-yield-out-in-2015
MARKET REPORT
- Thursday, the S&P 500 was up about 1% to 2088 (rounded). (The
Russell 2000 was up 1.2%.)
-VIX fell about 10% to 15.34.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note fell to 1.99%.
WATCING THE CHARTS
The S&P 500 finally pushed
thru the 2060 area.
That’s bullish for
the short term. The Russell 2000 pushed up to
prior highs so it’s important to see some follow-thru in that index. That would be a bullish sign too.
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) rose to 55% at the close Thursday. (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Thursday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +171. (It was +76 Wednesday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +10. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has INCREASED by 10-each day.
Internals switched to positive on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these internals
alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive
out on Negative – no shorting). Of
course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility,
straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
Thursday, the NTSM analysis is BUY. The PRICE, VOLUME & VIX indicators are positive; Sentiment is neutral. The more important BUY signal was in late October after the bottom and more recently 2-days after the mini-bottom on 20 January. Stock market direction from here is likely to be influenced by news as much as technical indications. For now, things look good. Of course that doesn’t mean they can’t change tomorrow.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested in stocks in the long-term portfolio. 50% is conservative, but appropriate for a retired guy.
My position in the S&P 500
is very small now. I have invested in
the Dow Jones US Completion Total (^DWCPF) instead, because that is the only
small-cap choice in my retirement account.
(The DWCPF includes all stocks EXCEPT
the S&P 500.) I’ll be following this
closely to see if the call works out. As
noted Tuesday, some Pros disagree. I
have no intention of remaining in smaller caps if they don’t outperform the
S&P 500. So far, they are 1.1% ahead
in February.
