“U.S. consumers are feeling a bit less confident this month, but their spirits are still at the highest levels since before the Great Recession. The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its consumer confidence index dropped this month to 96.4 from a revised 103.8 in January. The February and January readings are the highest since before the recession officially started in December 2007.” Story at…
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2015/02/24/consumer-confidence/23937943/
YELLEN CONGRESSIONAL TESTIMONY (Marketwatch)
“Janet Yellen stuck to her previous language of being data-dependent when it comes to deciding on the timing and the pace of raising interest rates. She pointed that the Fed needed confidence to see that the inflation rate is rising toward the 2% target while the labor market still has room for improvement. The main indexes edged higher, as Yellen’s testimony was perceived as mostly in line with the previous FOMC statement.” Story at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-investors-wait-for-fresh-direction-from-yellen-2015-02-24
OBAMA SAYS NO TO KEYSTONE PIPELINE - HE PREFERS RAIL TO PIPELINES….REALLY????
Crude Oil Train Burns near Charleston, West Virginia (16
Feb 2015)BTW: These rail cars had been upgraded to the latest safety standards and the train was traveling below the speed limit.
CURRENTLY A HUGE SHORTAGE OF OIL PIPELINES (my headline) (Yahoo.com)
“Rail shipments of crude have increased from 9,500 carloads in 2008 to more than 435,000 in 2013, driven by a boom in the Bakken oil patch of North Dakota and Montana. Limited pipeline capacity there forces about 70 percent of the crude to reach refineries by rail, according to American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers.”
http://news.yahoo.com/west-virginia-train-derailment-sends-oil-tanker-river-204306095.html
Frankly, the above story is a reason I have problems with a large part of the environmental movement. In their opposition, there is no logic, no reasoning, and no analysis. The environmental movement says the Keystone pipeline will contribute to Global Warming; but even if that were true, the oil will be shipped in other ways that are more costly, dangerous, and environmentally unacceptable. Not only does it take fossil fuels to haul the rail cars, but train tracks often follow the rivers and accidents almost always cause significant water pollution. Federal data shows that in 2013 over a million gallons of crude oil was spilled in railcar accidents. Further…
“The federal government predicts that trains hauling crude oil or ethanol will derail an average of 10 times a year over the next two decades, causing more than $4 billion in damage and possibly killing hundreds of people if an accident happens in a densely populated part of the U.S.” (AP) Story…http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_OIL_TRAINS_SAFETY?SITE=VANOV&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT#_ga=1.225076826.1727190244.1424651550
A petroleum engineer would solve this problem in a hurry
– in fact they did. That’s why the pipeline
was proposed in the first place.
MARKET REPORT
-Tuesday, the S&P 500 was up about 0.3% to 2115 (rounded).
-VIX fell about 2% to 13.69.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note dropped to 1.97%.
RSI reached overbought territory on Friday at 84 and fell slightly to 81 Monday and finished at a neutral 71 Tuesday.
Volume remained low again today, Tuesday, and was about 12% below the monthly average. This isn’t a bullish indication so I’ll be watching to see if volume will pick-up.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) remained 54% at the close Tuesday. (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Tuesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +170. (It was +141 Monday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +13. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has INCREASED by 13-each day.
Internals remained neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
Monday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD. PRICE and VOLUME indicators are positive; VIX and SENTIMENT indicators are neutral, although sentiment remains extremely high.
I remain fully invested at 50% invested in stocks in the long-term portfolio. 50% is conservative, but appropriate for a retired guy.
My position in the S&P 500 is very small now. I have invested in the Dow Jones US Completion Total (^DWCPF) instead, because that is the only small-cap choice in my retirement account. (The DWCPF includes all stocks EXCEPT the S&P 500.) Some Pros disagree, but so far it has worked out. Since I made the call, at the end of January, the DWCPF is 1.4% ahead of the S&P 500.
I saw a very good discussion of the small vs large cap issue on CNBC Tuesday and the speaker noted that the PE’s were very high on the smaller cap stocks and suggested sticking with large cap (S&P500) based on expected future returns associated with the PE’s.
I am looking at shifting some funds into the EAF ETF (Europe and Far East) at the end of the month. The US is expensive compared to the rest of the world and the EAF bottomed 9 Jan 2014. This is the only foreign investment available in my retirement account.
