“The number of U.S. workers who applied for unemployment benefits in the first week of June remained near a 15-year low, reflecting a low rate of layoffs and an upsurge in hiring over the past few years. Initial jobless claims in the period running from May 31 to June 6 edged up by 2,000 to 279,000…” Story at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-stay-near-15-year-low-2015-06-11
RETAIL SALES (WSJ)
“U.S. retail sales surged in May, a sign consumers are stepping up spending after a cautious start to the year. Sales at retailers and restaurants rose 1.2% from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted $444.9 billion in May…” Story at…
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-retail-sales-up-1-2-in-may-1434025898
MARKET REPORT
-Thursday, the S&P 500 was up about 0.2% to 2109 at the close.
-VIX fell about 3% to 12.85.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note was down to 2.38%. (As a percentage move, that’s 3.8% lower on the day.)
Internals improved, but were mixed. I can’t get too optimistic since the new-high/new-low data wasn’t too strong Thursday. Still, I’m guessing the markets will make new highs, barring some unforeseen news, like a Greece related correction. We’ll have to look for more positive data tomorrow.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) remained 46% at the close Thursday. (A number below 50% is usually BAD news for the markets. New-highs outpaced New-lows Thursday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +15 (It was +43 Wednesday.) The 10-day moving average of change in the spread slipped to +1. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has increased by 1 each day.
Internals remained neutral on the markets, but only
breadth kept it from a positive reading.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility,
nearly straight-up year like 2014.
NTSM
Thursday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD. PRICE is positive. VOLUME, VIX and SENTIMENT indicators are neutral, although (as always) sentiment remains extremely high.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested, mostly in smaller
cap-stocks in the long-term portfolio with some international stocks. 50% is
conservative, but appropriate for a conservative retired guy. The Dow Jones US Completion Index (all stocks except the S&P 500 – the “S” fund in the TSP) remains ahead of the S&P 500. Since 1 February it is 3.7% ahead of the S&P 500. Since 1 March the Euro-Pacific ETF (EFA) (“I”-fund) is 2.3% ahead of the S&P 500.
THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN (TSP) MEMBERS
My current TSP Allocation: 50%-G; 10%-C; 20%-S; 20%-I. (50% cash is too high for non-retirees, however, the “G”-fund did return 2.2% over the last 12-months and that is exceptional for risk-free money.)
