MARKET REPORT
-Friday, the S&P 500 was down about 0.5% to 2110 at the close.
-VIX rose about 6% to 13.96.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note fell to 2.27%.
Volume was extremely high due to options expiration. I still think the Markets go up from here in the short run, but Greece remains the wild card. There was late day selling today and that may have been Greece related. Rumors are going to fly both ways so next week may be interesting, but nearly impossible to trade unless one guesses the outcome and bets that way.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) remained 49% at the close Friday. (A number below 50% is usually BAD news for the markets.
New-highs outpaced New-lows Friday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +35 (It was +70 Thursday.) The 10-day moving average of change in the spread remained +12. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has INCREASED by 12 each day.
Internals are neutral on the market because only 49% of
stocks on the NYSE have advanced over the past 10-days, otherwise they would be
positive.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
NTSM
Friday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD. PRICE is positive. VOLUME, VIX and SENTIMENT indicators are neutral, although (as always) sentiment remains extremely high.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I remain fully invested at 50% invested, mostly in smaller
cap-stocks in the long-term portfolio with some international stocks. 50% is
conservative, but appropriate for a conservative retired guy. The Dow Jones US Completion Index (all stocks except the S&P 500 – the “S” fund in the TSP) remains ahead of the S&P 500. Since 1 February it is 4.4% ahead of the S&P 500. Since 1 March the Euro-Pacific ETF (EFA) (“I”-fund) is 1.2% ahead of the S&P 500.
THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN (TSP) MEMBERS
My current TSP Allocation: 50%-G; 10%-C; 20%-S; 20%-I. (50% cash is too high for non-retirees, however, the “G”-fund did return 2.2% over the last 12-months and that is exceptional for risk-free money.)
