Sunday, October 11, 2015

Not increasing stock allocation…What's the matter McFly...CHICKEN?

I have decided not to increase my stock allocation in long-term retirement accounts, yet. My problem is that while many of the indicators say the correction is over, the S&P 500 didn’t have a successful test (in my analysis - others disagree).  Another big concern is the shape of the long-term chart.
 
The long flat-top on the S&P 500 chart, lasting February-July 2015, is similar to the flat topping pattern in May-Oct 2007 and that signaled the top prior to the decline in the financial crisis of 2007-2008.  None of this means that another crisis is here, but it does show concern by investors so I am reluctant to jump back in the market. Since I didn’t get a strong signal for a correction end, I certainly wouldn’t get in with a big bet.
 
Further, I am not a big Fibonacci fan, but some swear by the Fibonacci analysis. I note that the S&P 500 has not reached its Fibonacci 62% retracement level of 2030. A break above that level would give some more confidence to the move up.
 
Bottom line: I will wait a bit longer before increasing my stock allocation. As earnings season moves along, there may be a better indication of investor mood.
 
I am ignoring the BUY signal Friday (after the close) and I will keep my long-term signal at HOLD for the time being.


What’s the matter McFly….CHICKEN???