Unemployment … GDP … Stock Market Top Coming … Stock Market Analysis

UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (Bloomberg)
“Applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. were little changed last week, hovering close to four-decade lows and showing steady progress in the labor market. Jobless claims increased by 1,000 to 260,000 in the week ended Oct. 24…” Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-29/jobless-claims-in-u-s-were-little-changed-near-four-decade-low
 
GDP (Marketwatch)
“The U.S. economy cooled off in the third quarter as companies cut back production to prevent a worrisome buildup in inventories, particularly of goods destined for foreign markets. Gross domestic product — the value of everything a nation produces — rose at a 1.5% annual pace from July through September…” Story at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/third-quarter-gdp-lands-with-thud-just-15-growth-2015-10-29
My cmt: It was 3.9% in the prior quarter. The 1.5% is a preliminary reading. The current prediction by the Atlanta Fed for the FINAL number is 1.1%.
 
TOP COMING (CNBC)
“Market watcher Jeffrey Saut [chief investment strategist at Raymond James], who correctly called the August bottom, said Thursday he sees a "trading top" for stocks in the next few days.” Story/Video at…
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/29/i-called-august-bottom-now-i-see-top-jeff-saut.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS        
-Thursday, the S&P 500 was down 1Pt to 2089 at the close.
-VIX was rose about 2% to 14.61.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.17%. (Bond traders are pricing in a Fed rate rise; it doesn’t appear to be priced into the stock market yet.)
 
The S&P 500 Index was overbought last week on a standard Advance-Decline Ratio basis while the RSI too signaled a possible top.  Both of those indicators have cleared, but another overbought measure is signaling trouble. Wednesday, my price-basis “overbought/oversold” indicator flashed overbought so I have delayed getting back in the market once again. At this point, I am just going to wait it out.
 
Longer term, I am becoming increasingly concerned about the appearance of the charts, company revenue and earnings weakness, and deterioration in economic conditions.
 
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) fell to 51.2% Thursday vs. 55.4% Wednesday.  (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.  On a longer term, the 50-day moving average of advancing stocks rose to 51%.  The McClellan Oscillator (a Breadth measure) reversed back to positive Wednesday, but it is nearly negative Thursday.
 
New-highs outpaced New-lows Thursday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +38. (It was +54 Wednesday.)   The 10-day moving average of the change in spread was +2 Thursday.  In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has increased by 2 each day.  The internals remained positive on the markets.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).  Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
 
NTSM         
Thursday, the NTSM long term indicator was BUY. Price, VIX and Volume indicators are positive.  Sentiment is neutral. I am not following this guidance for the time being; I am waiting for a better entry point.

I will wait before increasing stock holdings; I think there will be a better entry point.

 
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
G-Fund (Cash, risk-free yielding 2.1% over the last 12-months): 70%
C-Fund (S&P 500): 15%
I-Fund (EFA): 15%