"Led by declines in production-related indicators, the
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved down to –0.30 in November
from –0.17 in October. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make
up the index decreased from October, and three of the four categories made
negative contributions to the index in November.” Press release at…
https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/cfnai/indexFor analysis of the data see Advisor Perspectives at…
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Chicago-Fed-National-Activity-Index
GOLDEN CROSS???
I was asleep at the wheel Friday, there was a Golden Cross today (Monday), but not Friday. Today the 50-dMA crept higher than the 200-dMA. (I am going to study up on basic counting: 1 is smaller than 2; 2 is smaller than 3; 3 is…) Theoretically, that is very bullish. I am not convinced. As I wrote previously,the market wasn’t wrecked when the “Death Cross” (50-dMA below the 200-dMA) occurred so it may not be saved when the opposite “Golden Cross” occurs.
5-INVESTING MYTHS THAT WILL HURT YOU (Real Investment Advice)
Interesting piece at…
http://realinvestmentadvice.com/5-investing-myths-that-will-hurt-you/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday, the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 2021 at the close.
-VIX fell about 10% to 18.70.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury remained 2.20.
Market Internals continue to improve so I remain cautiously bullish. Volume was average Monday, so today’s bullish tone doesn’t seem to be an aberration.
PERCENT OF NEW-HIGHS AT TOPS
When the S&P 500 pushed up to its most recent high on 3 November 2015, it was 1% below the all-time high of 2131 back in May. The percentage of NYSE stocks making new-highs on 3 Nov was 3.4%. That is lower than every Top going back to 1929 except for 2 of the 15-major Tops. My point is simply that the market remains at risk for rapid declines if news turns bad or investors panic from an unforeseen event. My advice remains the same: adjust your %-invested in stocks accordingly.
MONEY FLOW
My new “money Flow” indicator tracks up-$ vs. down-$ vs the S&P. It is a seemingly reliable indicator for short term decisions. It remains bullish.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
(I am getting data from various sites. Some of the numbers are subject to minor revision later today so the previous day’s numbers may be slightly different than reported previously.)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) rose to 44.3% Monday vs. 39.7% Friday. (A number below 50% is usually BAD news for the markets. On a longer term, the 150-day moving average of advancing stocks improved to 48.6%. A value below 50% indicates a down trend.
The McClellan Oscillator (a Breadth measure) improved but remained negative Monday.
New-lows outpaced New-highs Monday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was minus-139. (It was -207 Friday.) The 10-day moving average of the change in spread was +15 Friday. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has increased by 15 each day. Market Internals remain neutral Friday. Only the breadth indicator is preventing the Internals from a positive reading on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
NTSM
Monday, Volume & VIX indicators are Sell: Sentiment & Price remain neutral. The NTSM numbers are again Sell…BUT… Long-term and Short-term indicators continue to improve so for now I am putting a HOLD rating on the long-term indicator too.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATIONLast Thursday I increased my invested position in my retirement account to 50% invested in stocks thru an S&P 500 Index fund (“C”-fund in the TSP).
I may not maintain a bullish stance for long; I’ll just see what the indicators have to say and I will move on the short term indicators.
