“U.S. personal income in November rose for an eighth straight month on solid wage gains, which should support consumer spending and bolster economic growth next year. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday income increased 0.3 percent last month…” Story at…
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-personal-income-idUSKBN0U61DS20151223
DURABLE GOODS ORDERS UNCHANGED (ABC News)
“Factory orders for long-lasting goods such as autos, airplanes and electronics were flat in November, as the impact of a strong dollar and struggling global economy weigh on U.S. manufacturers.” Story at…
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/orders-us-durable-goods-unchanged-november-35921731
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (UK Yahoo Finance)
“The University of Michigan's final sentiment index for December rose to 92.6 from a preliminary reading of 91.8 and 91.3 the previous month.” Story at…
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/michigan-consumer-sentiment-beats-expectations-152000401.html
CRUDE INVENTORIES (Reuters via CNBC)
“Oil prices rose as much as 4 percent on Wednesday, underpinned by an unexpectedly large fall in U.S. crude inventories, but were still close to multi-year lows as supplies remained abundant and as OPEC lowered the demand outlook for its exports.” Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/21/
DOES THIS 1-YR S&P 500 CHART LOOK GOOD? – NO!
The trend (solid red line) is down until it isn’t. For now, it remains down. I suspect the Index can break above the light red-line; the heavy red-line remains problematic.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday, the S&P 500 rose about 1.2% to 2064 at the close.
-VIX fell about 6% to 15.57 Treasury rose to 2.24.
“As an investor, you should remember that making money in the market is only one-half of the job. Keeping it is the other.” – Lance Roberts
The Holiday season is here. Final volume Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday was about 20% below recent averages, so traders aren’t playing in this rally as much as usual. That’s only a concern if the market gets ahead of itself. It could become subject to a quick pullback when everyone gets back to work in January.
For now, the Christmas Rally continued. It was not foretold by Jacob Marley, but rather by the oversold conditions that persisted from 9-18 December and the volume reversal on 16 December. I had a Buy signal on the evening of 16 Dec.
Market Internals continue to improve and New-highs exceeded new-lows today, Wednesday, so I remain bullish in the short-term. I’ll need to pay attention around 2090 since as the Index approaches the upper-trend line - it may have trouble getting higher. It has tried to break thru the upper trend numerous times, but has failed.
MONEY TREND
My new “Money Trend” indicator tracks Up-$ vs. Down-$ vs the S&P. It remains bullish. I still need to do some back testing and develop some firm buy-sell points. (I am calling this Money Trend to keep it separate from Money Flow that is a term for a very specific analysis method.)
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
(I am getting data from various sites. Some of the numbers are subject to minor revision so the previous day’s numbers may be slightly different than reported previously.)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) rose to 54.6% Tuesday vs. 49.9% Tuesday. (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets. On a longer term, the 150-day moving average of advancing stocks improved to 49.0%. A value below 50% indicates a down trend.
The McClellan Oscillator (a Breadth measure) remained positive Wednesday.
In a positive reversal, New-highs outpaced New-lows Wednesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +31. (It was -150 Tuesday.) The 10-day moving average of the change in spread was +27 Wednesday. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has INCREASED by 27 each day. Market Internals switched to positive Wednesday.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
NTSM
Wednesday, Sentiment, Price, Volume & VIX indicators are neutral.
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
On 17 Dec I increased my invested position in my retirement account to 50% invested in stocks thru an S&P 500 Index fund (“C”-fund in the TSP).
I may not maintain a bullish stance for long; I’ll just
see what the indicators have to say and I will move on the short term
indicators. I am not bullish in the long-term.
See “Why the Bull Market May be Dead” in my 14 December blog at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2015/12/stocks-are-topping-time-to-sell-hussman.html
