JOBLESS CLAIMS (Bloomberg)
“The number of applications for unemployment benefits in
the U.S. climbed last week to a two-month high, a sign of more moderate labor
market progress. Initial jobless claims increased by 11,000 to 276,000 in the
week ended March 26…” Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-31/initial-jobless-claims-in-u-s-rose-last-week-to-two-month-high
CHICAGO PMI (Advisor Perspectives)
“Chief Economist of MNI Indicators Philip Uglow said,
"’The most significant result from the March survey is the pick-up in the
Employment component which has remained weak for much of the past year. Looking
through some of the recent volatility, the data are consistent with steady, not
spectacular, economic growth in the US.’" Commentary and charts at…
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Chicago-PMI
PEAK IN CORPORATE EARNINGS (Jesse Felder’s Tumblr)
“…corporate earnings are one of the most popular ways to
value equities thus the sustainability of record-high profit margins should be
an issue of great concern to investors. If profit margins revert to historical
averages, earnings-based valuation measures investors are using to justify
investment in equities today could quickly go against them making stocks appear
much more expensive than they do currently. And this process may now be
underway.” Commentary at…
http://jessefelder.tumblr.com/post/141970540550/we-may-have-just-witnessed-a-generational-peak-in
STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS
I’ll have to skip the analysis today – it’s a busy
one. As of 3PM Thursday the S&P 500
was dropping and volatility (VIX) was increasing. The long-term NTSM signal remained BUY; short
term indicators, Money Trend and the Breadth-Index Top Indicator, are
suggesting a pull-back now.
My separate Market Internal indicator is positive on the
markets as of 3PM, but that might switch to neutral if the market continues
down. This indicator is slow to react
and tends to be more of a follower.
Overall I remain bearish in the near-term and long-term,
at least until we get news that would change the long-term view. Company earnings will be the big test.
