“IMF changed its tune today [Tuesday] in the wake of miserable trade data from China. Also today, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) joined the IMF today with a warning about global growth. The OECD specifically warned that leading indicators for the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Japan and Germany suggest easing of growth.” Commentary at…
http://mishtalk.com/2016/03/08/oecd-warns-leading-indicators-point-to-slower-global-growth/
CRUDE INVENTORIES UP (Street Insider)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 521.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year.” Story at…
http://www.streetinsider.com/Commodities/UPDATE%3A+Crude+Inventory+%2B3.88M+Barrels+vs+%2B3.2M+Expected/11404635.html
WHOLESALE INVENTORIES RISE (Reuters)
“U.S. wholesale inventories unexpectedly rose in January as sales tumbled, suggesting that efforts by businesses to reduce an inventory overhang could persist well into 2016 and restrain economic growth.” Story at…
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-wholesale-inventories-idUSKCN0WB1VS
REBOUND IS OVER – GUNDLACH (MarketWatch)
“The S&P 500 is likely to
only gain about 2% in the near term, but it could fall as much as 20%,
DoubleLine’s Gundlach said late Tuesday…” Story at…http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jeff-gundlach-tells-this-hard-partying-market-its-time-to-sober-up-2016-03-09
OFF TOPIC – CLINTON’S EMAIL DEFENSE BLEW UP (Investor’s Business Daily)
“The Washington Post, of all places, found that not only did Hillary Clinton send and receive classified material on her unsecured email server as Secretary of State, she wrote dozens of classified emails herself.” Story at…
http://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/email-scandal-hillary-clintons-last-defense-just-blew-up/
Commentary from a trader: “So Hillary knowingly created and sent classified email from her personal server. This election campaign just gets more convoluted. The choice may come down to someone who cannot be trusted and who violated national security vs an egotistical buffoon.” – jumanji0881
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday, the S&P 500 was up about 0.5% to 1989 at the close.
-VIX was down about 2% to 18.34.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.89%.
The Overbought/Oversold Ratio remained “Overbought” Wednesday for the twelfth day in a row. RSI was “Overbought” last Thursday. Both are short-term bearish for the markets.
The S&P 500 dropped to 1.6% below the 200-dMA; the slope of the 200-dMA remains down. The Index remains in a down trend.
Market Internals are slowly deteriorating; when the market figures that out the indices are likely to fall.
MONEY TREND & SHORT TERM TRADING
The short-term Money Trend indicator is still suggesting downside ahead.
I still am holding short positions in SH and QID. So far, these trades aren’t working.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
(I am getting data from various sites. Some of the numbers are subject to minor revision so the previous day’s numbers may be slightly different than reported yesterday.)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) is 63.9% Wednesday vs. is 63.3% Tuesday. (A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.)
On a longer term, the 150-day moving average of advancing stocks rose to 50.2%. A value above 50% indicates an up-trend since slightly more stocks have advanced over the last 150-days. The McClellan Oscillator (a Breadth measure) was higher and remained positive.
New-highs again outpaced New-lows. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +88 Wednesday. (It was +73 Tuesday.) The 10-day moving average of the change in spread rose to +12. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average; the spread has INCREASED by 12 each day. Market Internals remained positive on the markets.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, nearly straight-up year like 2014.
NTSM
Wednesday, Price, Volume & VIX were positive. Sentiment was neutral. The long-term NTSM indicator is BUY. I have not followed the guidance yet. My guess is that the Index is topping out. We’ll see.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATIONOn 30 Dec I reduced my invested position in my retirement account to 30% invested in stocks thru an S&P 500 Index fund (“C”-fund in the TSP) and on 15 Jan I reduced stock allocation to zero in long-term accounts.
The S&P 500 peaked in Mid-May and has not been able to break higher in the past 9-months. That looks like a top to me. See “Why the Bull Market May be Dead” in my 14 December blog at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2015/12/stocks-are-topping-time-to-sell-hussman.html
