“Personal income improved 0.4 percent during the first month of the third quarter …Personal spending continued to improve at the beginning of the third quarter. July’s personal spending increased 0.3 percent after an upwardly revised 0.5 percent in June.” Story at…
http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/personal-income-and-spending-steady-as-q3-begins-201608291441
DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING (Business Insider)
“The Dallas Federal Reserve's monthly manufacturing index out on Monday was reported at -6.2 for August…It has not turned positive since December 2014…” Story at…
http://www.businessinsider.com/dallas-fed-manufacturing-survey-august-2016-2016-8
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 was up about 0.5% to 2180.
-VIX fell about 5% to 12.94.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 1.57%.
Short-term indicators are still pointing down. My bearish short-term stance remains and I suspect next week will be down again. So far I am 2 for 3 on my weekly guesses.
VXX TRADE:
Monday, the calm-before-the-storm indicator (low standard of deviation in recent market moves) still remains down and that suggests that VXX remained a buy as of Monday’s close.
SHORT TRADE
I am still holding short positions, but I did exit some of the short positions and transitioned into VXX. (This books a loss for the trade for tax purposes and maintains a bearish stance.) I caution again to take it easy on this high risk stuff.
MONEY TREND INDICATOR
My short-term Money Trend indicator can be volatile; Monday it is trending flat to slightly down; a neutral to slightly bearish indication.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) rose to 51.1% Monday. It was 50.3% Friday. A number above 50% is usually GOOD news for the markets.
On a longer term, the 150-day moving average of advancing stocks slipped to 55.0%. A value above 50% generally indicates an up-trend. The McClellan Oscillator improved from -35 to -12.
New-highs outpaced New-lows. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) dropped to +165 Monday. (It was +185 Friday.) The 10-day moving average of the change in spread was -4. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has decreased by 4 each day. Market Internals remained neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Monday the Price indicator was positive; Sentiment, VIX and & Volume indicators were neutral. The long-term indicator is HOLD.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATIONOn 12 July I increased my invested position in my retirement account to 25% invested in stocks thru an S&P 500 Index fund (“C”-fund in the TSP). I added to that position Thursday 21 July bringing my invested total up to 40% in stocks. I expect to add more stocks should we get the anticipated pullback.
The NTSM system indicated Buy at the 11 Feb bottom; and again 2-days after the bottom on high up-volume; and from 22 Feb thru 25 April. I ignored the early signals convinced that it was a bear market bounce; I ignored more recent signals due to overbought conditions. I’m following my system now, especially since the Index has climbed above my initial sell-point of 2100 on the S&P 500 back in November 2015.
