CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Business Insider)
“Consumer confidence just surged to its highest
level since the recession. The latest reading on consumer confidence from the
Conference Board came in a 104.1 for September, up from the prior month's
101.8.” Story at…
DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING IMPROVES BUT STILL NEGATIVE
(Advisor Perspectives)
“Texas factory activity increased markedly in September,
according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook
Survey…The general business activity index remained negative for a
21st consecutive month, although it edged up to -3.7.” Story at…
RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING (Advisor Perspectives)
“…the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite Index
increased 2 points to -8 from last month's -11… ‘Manufacturing activity in the
Fifth District continued to soften in September, but somewhat less so than in
August, according to the Richmond Fed's latest survey. New orders and shipments
decreased this month at a slower pace, while backlogs decreased at about the
same pace as last month. Hiring activity weakened across firms and wage
increases were less widespread. Although raw materials prices rose at a
somewhat faster pace in September, prices of finished goods barely increased in
the month.’” ...Commentary and analysis at…
ATA TRUCKING JUMPS (ATA)
“American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally
adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 5.7% in August, following
a 2.1% decline during July…Compared with August 2015, the SA index rose 5.9%,
the largest year-over-year gain since May also 5.9%…Year-to-date, compared with
the same period in 2015, tonnage was up 3.5%.” Press release at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was up about 0.6% to 2160 at the
close.
-VIX fell about 10% to 13.1 at the close.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped to 1.56%.
Indicators are still pointing up and my sum of
16-indicators moved up from zero to +5.
On a 10-day basis indicators continued to improve. Sentiment (%-bulls in
selected Rydex/Guggenheim bull-bear funds) has declined to 65%-bulls and that’s
enough to suggest that the Index can make new highs.
Not all is bullish though. The advance-decline ratio is now “overbought”. This indicator can be very early and it can
remain overbought for some time, so no need to worry yet.
Reviewing my losing trade when I went short as the Index
recovered from its February swoon, I realize I put too much faith in the Money
Trend indicator. I found that it tends
to be overly exuberant after a correction.
In other words it got too high and then fell and that gave a sell signal
while the markets continued to rise…Live and learn.
Last night, futures shot up 0.35% as the debate got underway
so investors must have decided that the country would survive if either one of
these two loonies got elected. I won’t be voting for either of them, but I will
be voting.
I remain short-term bullish and 2200 to 2250 seems likely.
Long-term, I’m fully invested at 50% in stocks (a conservative-retiree
allocation) – that’s hold my nose bullish.
TRADING PORTFOLIO
2x S&P 500 ETF (SSO): Established Thursday, 22 Sep.
That’s a leveraged long position, but not everyone agrees
as noted in the below commentary “Traders Alert”…
TRADERS ALERT (SafeHaven)
“In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored
(with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term
outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500
index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral”
My cmt: My indicators are bullish, but it’s another
opinion.
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
-10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE): 55.9% (51.1% Monday.) A number above 50% is usually BULLISH
for the markets short-term.
-150-day moving average of advancing stocks: 54.8%.
(A value above
50% indicates an up-trend.)
- McClellan Oscillator: improved from -13 to -5
(percentage calculation method).
- New-highs minus new-lows: +57 (It was +39 Monday.)
-10-day moving average of the change in spread: +7.
In other words,
over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by 7 each day.
Market Internals switched
to positive on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Tuesday the Price indicator was positive. Volume, VIX
& Sentiment indicators were neutral. Overall the long-term indicator
remained HOLD.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in
the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 23 Sep in my long-term accounts
based on a number of indicators other than Long Term. Remainder is 50% G-Fund. (Turns
out I made my request for a transfer into the C-fund too late on Thursday.)
This is a conservative retiree allocation.
