“U.S. employers posted roughly the same number of open
jobs in September as the previous month, partly because hurricanes held back
hiring at restaurants and hotels. The Labor
Department said Tuesday that 6.09 million jobs were available
at the end of September, not far from the record high of 6.14 million reached
in July.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was unchanged at 2591.
-VIX was up about 5% to 9.89.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.316%.
Once again, we had a neutral day (half point down) with
market internals suggesting more down ahead. Only 43% of stocks on the NYSE
were up today. The longer-term trend was down too as the 10-day moving average
slipped to 49.4%. More shares have
traded down over the last 10-days than up; and most of the volume (52%) has
been down too. That’s usually not a bullish recipe.
Smart money (late-day action) was up today and it flattened
out so maybe the Pros are getting more bullish. For now I’d say they are
neutral. The sum of 17-indicators is looking bearish long-term and today it slipped
from -3 to -4. (A minus number indicates
that more indicators are bearish than bullish.)
Another repeat comment…
I still think down is more likely than up, but we’ll see.
I remain bullish longer-term. One wonders when this party
will end so I will worry if the numbers deteriorate, but for now I remain fully
invested.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
Technology (XLK) was #1. It‘s time to buy XLK, especially
if we get a dip.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 DOW STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
I’ll get around to expanding this to the Dow 30
eventually. It’s a lot of work to set it up and load the data.
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
Intel (INTC) remained #1 today. I have owned Intel for
some time – I bought more Halloween, 10/31/2017. Avoid GE, Merck and Disney.
Their 120-day moving averages are falling.
*I rank the Dow 15 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the
total portfolio)
LONG
I did take a short-term VXX position on 27 Oct very near
the close. This violates the rules below, but I am eternally hopeful. I am still holding this position; if we
don’t see a break down soon I’ll be out.
My shorting rule is as follows:
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or
neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy
is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside
momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes
be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading
against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained Neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Tuesday, Sentiment,
Price, VIX & Volume indicators were neutral. With VIX recently below 10
for a couple of days in May, June, July, August, September, October and now
November, VIX may be prone to incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad
market sign; now it may move up, but that might just signal normalization of
VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the
picture for a while.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) 24 March
2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. The remainder
is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree
allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.
The previous signal was a BUY on 2 June and the last
actionable signal was a BUY (from a prior sell) on 15 November 2016.
