“A measure of U.S. consumer sentiment dipped in early
November from last month's 13-year high, as respondents' expectations of
current and future economic conditions declined slightly. The University of
Michigan on Friday said its preliminary reading on consumer sentiment was 97.8
in November, down from 100.7 in October.” Story at…
http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/11/10/consumer-sentiment-dips-in-early-november-update.html
REPUBLICANS USED TO STAND FOR FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY. NOW?
“…the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget stated:
“Republicans in Congress laid out two visions in two
budgets for our fiscal future, and…they choose the path of gimmicks, debt,
and absolutely zero fiscal restraint over the one of responsibility and
balance. Passing fiscally irresponsible budgets just for the sake of passing
“tax cuts,” is, well, irresponsible. Once again, elected leaders have not
listened to, or learned, what their constituents are asking for which is simply
adherence to the Constitution and fiscal restraint.” Commentary at…
My cmt: Now? If Democrats are the Tax-and-Spend Party,
Republicans are the Cut-Tax-and-Spend Party. Since neither are making any attempt
to balance the budget; we’ll continue to steal from our children.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 was down about 0.1% to 2582.
-VIX was up about 7% to 11.29.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was essentially unchanged
at 2.326%.
Not much difference from yesterday’s numbers. For
commentary, just read yesterday’s blog post.
I’m still cautious and lean toward some downside ahead.
I remain bullish longer-term. One wonders when this party
will end so I will worry if the numbers deteriorate, but for now I remain fully
invested.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
Technology (XLK) was #1. It‘s time to buy XLK, especially
if we get a dip. It is interesting to see that Energy stocks (XLE) have moved
up strongly recently and are now #3.
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
Intel (INTC) remained #1 today. I have owned Intel for
some time – I bought more Halloween, 10/31/2017. Avoid GE, IBM, Merck, Verizon
and Disney. Their 120-day moving averages are falling.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the
total portfolio)
LONG
I did take a short-term VXX position on 27 Oct very near
the close. This violates the rules below, but I am eternally hopeful. I am still holding this position.
My shorting rule is as follows:
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or
neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy
is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside
momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes
be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading
against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
Neutral on the market.
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Friday, Sentiment,
Price, VIX & Volume indicators were neutral. With VIX recently below 10
for a couple of days in May, June, July, August, September, October and now
November, VIX may be prone to incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad
market sign; now it may move up, but that might just signal normalization of
VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the
picture for a while.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) 24 March
2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. The remainder
is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree
allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.
The previous signal was a BUY on 2 June and the last
actionable signal was a BUY (from a prior sell) on 15 November 2016.
