“Residential starts fell 8.2% to a 1.19m annualized rate
(est. 1.28m) after 1.3m pace in prior month; biggest drop since Nov. 2016…At
the same time, annual totals for permits, starts and completions were all the
highest since 2007.” Story at…
Starts were depressed due to the weather.
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Washington Examiner)
“New applications for unemployment insurance benefits
plunged by 41,000 to 220,000 in the second week of 2018, the Labor Department reported
Thursday, the lowest level in nearly 45 years.” Story at…
PHILADELPHIA FED (Investing.com)
“Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia-region
deteriorated in January to the lowest level in five months, dampening optimism
over the health of the economy.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that its
manufacturing index declined to 22.2 this
month…” Story at…
Any reading above 0 indicates expansion.
CRUDE INVENTORIES (OilPrice.com)
“Amid emerging doubts that OPEC and Russia have outdone
themselves with the oil production cuts and are starting to suffer the
consequences, the Energy Information Administration reported another
large draw in oil inventories this week. At 6.9 million barrels, the draw
is significant enough to support a further price rise for WTI.” Story at…
Looks like the oil stocks should continue to outperform.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 was down about 0.2% to 2798.
-VIX was up about 3% to 12.22.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.632%. (That’s
the highest yield in over 3 years. I only looked back 3-years; it might be a
lot longer.)
-RSI is still giving a sell signal.
-Most of the Topping Indicators I listed Friday remain
elevated.
-My sum of 17 Indicators slipped from +5 to +1 today. On
a 10-day basis, values were slightly higher. A “+” number means that most
indicators are bullish. This isn’t an all-clear though; conditions always look
good at a top.
I am bearish short-term; longer term I am a bull; but we
are due for a correction in 2018 due to Presidential election cycle
history. I still wouldn’t short this
market – there are too many buyers. We’ve gone straight up, and a surprising
number of people think this market is going much higher.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum
Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up
35% on the year.
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. Avoid GE. Its
120-day moving average is falling. Merck bounced yesterday with a new cancer
drug that is very promising.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
Neutral on the market. (Market Internals are based on a package of internals
and all must be positive to create a positive indication.)
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive,
out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Thursday, Price and Volume indicators were positive; Sentiment &
VIX indicators were neutral. This adds up to a BUY indication, but at this
point a BUY signal is meaningless. The
NTSM system is designed to issue BUY signals near a Bottom as conditions rapidly
improve. Now, it is just an indication
that the market is doing well. The NTSM
long-term signal can sometimes signal BUY at the top if conditions are too good.
The last actionable Buy signal was on 15 November 2016.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I remain FULLY INVESTED at 50% stocks in the S&P 500
Index fund (C-Fund) with the remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities).
This is a conservative retiree allocation, but I consider it fully invested for
my situation.
