“U.S. filings for unemployment benefits increased a week
after plunging to the lowest level since 1973, underscoring a still
historically tight jobs market, Labor Department figures showed on Thursday,
Jan. 25. Jobless claims increased by 17,000 to 233,000…” Story at…
NEW HOME SALES (USA Today)
“Americans cut back their purchases of new homes in
December as harsh winter weather dampened demand. The Commerce Department said
Thursday that new-home sales skidded 9.3% last month…” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 was up about a point to 2839.
-VIX was up about 1% to 11.58.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at
2.627%.
-My sum of 17 Indicators rose from +6 to +8 today. (A “+”
number means that most indicators are bullish.) Longer term, the indicators are
flat. There are plenty of bullish indicators: The late-day action is still
headed up implying the Pros are neutral to Bullish.
I am bearish short-term – topping indicators still look
stretched. If I see some more negative signs I will begin to pare back a bit on
stock holdings. Longer term I am a bull.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3
Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.)
XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. Avoid GE and
Merck. Their 120-day moving average is falling.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
Positive on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive,
out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Thursday, Price and Volume indicators were positive; Sentiment &
VIX indicators were neutral. This adds up to a BUY indication, but at this
point a BUY signal is meaningless. The
NTSM system is designed to issue BUY signals near a Bottom as conditions
rapidly improve. Now, it is just an
indication that the market is doing well.
The NTSM long-term signal can sometimes signal BUY at the top if
conditions are too good. The last actionable Buy signal was on 15 November
2016.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I remain FULLY INVESTED at 50% stocks in the S&P 500
Index fund (C-Fund) with the remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities).
This is a conservative retiree allocation, but I consider it fully invested for
my situation.
