“U.S. homebuilding fell more than expected in February as
a plunge in the construction of multi-family housing units offset a second
straight monthly increase in single-family projects . Housing starts declined
7.0 percent...” Story at…
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Industrial output jumped in February as American
factories ramped up production, signaling healthy momentum in a key sector of
the U.S. economy. Industrial production—a measure of total output at U.S.
factories, mines and utilities—increased a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in February
from the prior month…” Story at…
JOLTS (shopfloor.org)
“The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that there were
427,000 manufacturing
job openings in January, up strongly from 374,000 in December.
That was the best reading since September’s reading (445,000), which was the
best since January 2001.” Story at…
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Bloomberg)
“Consumer sentiment in March unexpectedly jumped to a
14-year high after tax cuts boosted disposable incomes, while new tariffs
raised inflation expectations and dimmed the outlook, a University of Michigan
survey showed Friday.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 was UP about 0.2% to 2752.
-VIX was DOWN about 5% to 15.8.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was up slightly to 2.847%.
-My sum of 17 Indicators remained unchanged at +3, but
the smoothed version jumped up again (from -2 to +12) reinforcing that conditions
now are much better than they were 2-4 weeks ago. Some of the more important indicators follow:
BULLISH SIGNS
-Up volume is moving up.
-Market Internals remain bullish.
-Money Trend is headed up.
-The S&P 500 closed above the 50-dMA and remained
above my lower trend line.
BEARISH SIGNS
-New-Highs are still falling when measured on a long-term
basis. Usually, this indicator bottoms when the S&P 500 makes a bottom so
it’s a worry that is still there.
As I’ve been writing for a few days, the S&P500 Index
needs to move up from here; otherwise it will break important support points
and that would be a short-term bearish sign. The chart is now more important than the indicators.
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3
Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.)
XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
Positive on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Friday, the VIX
indicator was negative; Price was positive; Sentiment and Volume were neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
27 February, I
increased stock holdings from 40% to 50% with the remainder in a mix of stocks
and (mostly short-term) bonds. (A comparable TSP allocation would be 50% in the
S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) with the remainder 50% G-Fund (Government
securities). This is a conservative retiree position.
