JOBLESS CLAIMS (MarketWatch)
The rate of layoffs in the U.S. as measured by initial
jobless claims fell slightly in early March and clung near a 50-year low — a
boon for workers and a headache for employers looking to hire.” Story at…
EMPIRE MANUFACTURING / PHILADELHIA FED (Marketwatch)
Two gauges of manufacturing sentiment reflected continued
solid activity in March, according to data released Thursday… The Empire State
Index, which had been lagging Philly, jumped to a reading of 22.5 in March from
13.1 in February…The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index slipped to a
reading of 22.3 in March from 25.8 in February.” Story at…
BONDS RISING – INTEREST RATES FALLING (RIA)
“In recent weeks, I’ve been keeping my eye on an interesting
situation: while the majority of market participants expect higher
interest rates (and lower bond prices), the “smart money” are expecting the
opposite…A slew of weak economic and inflation data has been causing investors
to pare back their expectations for much higher interest rates in the
shorter-term: the CPI-U increased only 0.2 percent in
February (after increasing 0.5 percent in January), retail sales
fell for the third month in a row, and Goldman Sachs and the
Atlanta Fed have cut their Q1 GDP forecast to under 2.0 percent.”
– Jesse Colombo. Commentary at….
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday
the S&P 500 was Down about 0.1% to 2747.
-VIX was DOWN about 4% to 16.59.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was up slightly to 2.835%.
BULLISH SIGNS
-56% of DOW stocks were up today and 58% of ETFs that I
track were up. Those are generally reasonably bullish numbers and suggest that
this rough patch may not have much longer to go.
-My sum of 17 Indicators was unchanged at +3, but the
smoothed version jumped up indicating that conditions now are much better than
they were 2-4 weeks ago.
-Up volume is increasing.
-Market Internals remain bullish.
-Money Trend is headed up.
-The S&P 500 closed a point below the 50-dMA, 2747 vs
2748 respectively. That’s slightly bearish, but the Index did not close below
my lower trend line. Here’s the chart with short-term, trend-lines in blue. The
Green line is the 50-dMA. If the trend-line is significantly broken, it may be
time to sell again.
BEARISH SIGNS
-10-day Breadth was 56%; that means over the last
10-days, 56% of the stocks on the NYSE have moved up and that’s now signaling
overbought on the advance-decline ratio. This isn’t too bearish though since
this signal can be very early.
-New-Highs are still falling when measured on a long-term
basis. Usually, this indicator bottoms when the S&P 500 makes a bottom so
it’s a worry that is still there.
-VIX is giving a bearish indication.
As noted above, the Index needs to move up from here;
otherwise it will break important support points and that would be a short-term
bearish sign.
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3
Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.)
XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
Boeing (BA) has
slipped to #3 on fears that the Chinese will retaliate against US tariffs by
placing their own restrictions on Boeing.
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
Positive on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Thursday, the VIX
indicator was negative; Price was positive; Sentiment and Volume were neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
27 February, I
increased stock holdings from 40% to 50% with the remainder in a mix of stocks
and (mostly short-term) bonds. (A comparable TSP allocation would be 50% in the
S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) with the remainder 50% G-Fund (Government
securities). This is a conservative retiree position.
