Personal Spending … Personal Consumption Expenditures … Jobless Claims … Chicago PMI … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

PERSONAL SPENDING / PCE PRICES (Reuters)

“U.S. consumer spending posted its biggest gain in five months in April, a further sign that economic growth was regaining momentum early in the second quarter, while inflation continued to rise steadily…The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding the volatile food and energy components increased 0.2 percent for the third straight month.” Story at…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/us-consumer-spending-accelerates-job-market-strengthening-idUSKCN1IW1NX

 

JOBLESS CLAIMS (MarketWatch)

“U.S. jobless claims fell at the end of May, suggesting that a recent increase in the rate of layoffs stemmed mostly from seasonal quirks whose effects are already fading. Initial jobless claims declined by 13,000 to 221,000 in the week ended May 26.” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-drop-13000-to-221000-in-late-may-2018-05-31

 

CHICAGO PMI (MarketWatch)

“The MNI Chicago business barometer surged 5.1 points to a reading of 62.7, the highest level since January.” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chicago-pmi-surges-in-may-to-a-four-month-high-2018-05-31

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Thursday the S&P 500 dropped about 0.7% to 2705.

-VIX rose about 3% to 15.43. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.875%

 

Technically, today we saw profit taking after the big move Wednesday, but there are others who will say today’s decline was all about the Trump Tariffs which were announced today. I don’t know, it doesn’t really matter – we’re watching the market’s moves and different measures of market internals to gauge the trend. The Tariffs won’t help the stock market, even if the actual effects will take a lot of time to slow the economy; but I am not too worried, yet.

 

As I said yesterday, there’s a lot of potential news that could shake up the markets; today we got some.  All we can do is follow the market and react if more bad news does show up. 

 

My daily sum of 17 Indicators slipped from +5 to 0, while the 10-day smoothed version dropped from +22 to +15. Today we undid all the good signs from yesterday.  It’s not all that bad though as the indicators as a whole are now neutral.  

 

My longer-term indicator system remains bullish.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:  

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. (On 5 Apr 2018 I corrected a coding/graphing error that had consistently shown Nike incorrectly.)

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals slipped to Neutral on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

 

18 Apr 2018 I increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. (It has since turned Neutral.) For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. 50% is my minimum unless I am in full defense mode.

 

On 10 May 2018 I added stock positions to increase Stock investments to 58% based on more evidence that the correction is over. I’ll sell these new positions quickly if the market turns down.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Thursday, the Price and VIX Indicators were positive; Volume and Sentiment indicators were neutral. Overall this is a BULLISH indication.

ADP Employment … GDP-2nd Estimate … FED Beige Book … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

ADP EMPLOYMENT (USA Today)

“Payroll processor ADP said Wednesday that businesses added 178,000 jobs last month, possibly reflecting at least a modest pickup in hiring in the government’s employment report this week but also the growing impact of worker shortages.” Story at…

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/05/30/adp-expected-report-190-000-private-sector-job-gains-may/653584002/

 

GDP (Reuters)

“U.S. economic growth slowed slightly more than initially thought in the first quarter amid downward revisions to inventory investment and consumer spending, but a robust labor market and income tax cuts are likely to boost activity this year.” Story at…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-first-quarter-growth-revised-down-to-2-2-percent-idUSKCN1IV1L5

 

FED BEIGE BOOK (MarketWatch)

“The Federal Reserve said the U.S. grew “moderately” from late April to early May in its latest evaluation of the economy, indicating the central bank remains firmly on track to raise interest rates next month…In every region of the country, Fed officials characterized the economy as performing well.” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/upbeat-beige-book-prognosis-of-economy-keeps-fed-on-track-for-june-rate-hike-2018-05-30

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Wednesday the S&P 500 was up about 1.3% to 2724.

-VIX fell about 12% to 15.02. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.841%

 

Like yesterday, Wednesday was a statistically-significant day, but it was up. That just means that the price-volume move up exceeded statistical parameters that I track. Again, the stats show that about 60% of the time a statistically significant move up will be followed by a down-day the next day. A pattern of up and down big moves in succession sometimes indicates a top as investors are confused about where the markets are headed. None of my topping indicators are suggesting a top, so it is more likely that that Tuesday was a good buying point. We do tend to see a preponderance of statistically-significant days at bottoms too; that happens when investors decide as one to buy after a bottom. I think we’re in “bottom mode” and we’ll continue up from here though not in a straight line. New-highs are still likely.

 

There’s a lot of potential news that could shake up the markets (Trump, Italian Political Crisis, Higher Interest rates, the FED).  All we can do is follow the market and react if bad news does show up. For now, we remain bullish.  

 

My daily sum of 17 Indicators bounced from -2 to +5, while the 10-day smoothed version climbed from +21 to +22. Conditions improved a lot today. The chart, up-volume, breadth, new-high/new-low data, XLI-SPY spread and my collection of market internals all made significant improvements.

 

My longer-term indicator system remains bullish.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:  

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. (On 5 Apr 2018 I corrected a coding/graphing error that had consistently shown Nike incorrectly.)

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals improved to Positive on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

 

18 Apr 2018 I increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. (It has since turned Neutral.) For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. 50% is my minimum unless I am in full defense mode.

 

On 10 May 2018 I added stock positions to increase Stock investments to 58% based on more evidence that the correction is over. I’ll sell these new positions quickly if the market turns down.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Wednesday, the Price and VIX Indicators were positive; Volume and Sentiment indicators were neutral. Overall this is a BULLISH indication.

The Russians Are Attacking Us … Consumer Confidence … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

I’m repeating this post for 2 reasons: (1) It is very important and every American should read the full story. (2) The MSN link is no longer good.

HOW THE RUSSIANS ARE ATTACKING US (USA Today)

“Young Mie Kim, a University of Wisconsin-Madison researcher who published some of the first scientific analysis of social media influence campaigns during the election, said the ads show that the Russians are attempting to destabilize Western Democracy by targeting extreme identity groups.” Story at…

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/05/11/what-we-found-facebook-ads-russians-accused-election-meddling/602319002/

My cmt: During the Ferguson crisis it was claimed by many that a black man had his hands up when he was shot by a police officer and he had done nothing to justify a shooting. The Officer claimed he was attacked and there was a struggle for the gun and that was corroborated by some witnesses according to reliable news sources.

 

I heard a young man call in to a local talk show. He was irate and claimed that the fact there were no fingerprints found on the officer’s gun proved there had not been a struggle. I wondered where he got his news. Both the WSJ and the Washington Post had reported that the Police didn’t look for fingerprints; they tested for DNA on the officer’s gun and found the assailants DNA. (Police test for DNA or fingerprints – in this case it was not feasible to look for both.) Everything the caller claimed was wrong. I wondered where he got his news…now we know – the Russians.

 

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (MarketWatch)

“The consumer confidence index rose to 128 from a revised 125.6 in April… The high level of confidence reflects a sturdy economic expansion in the U.S. that’s about to turn nine years old with no end in sight. Job openings are at a record high and unemployment is at a 17-year low.” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-confidence-sticks-near-18-year-high-2018-05-29

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Tuesday the S&P 500 was down about 1.2% to 2690.

-VIX rose about 29% to 17.02. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.778%

 

Tuesday was a statistically-significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move down exceeded statistical parameters that I track. The stats show that about 60% of the time a statistically significant move down will be followed by an up-day the next day. These days can sometimes indicate the start of some serious selling. Alternatively, it is common after a number of down days (only 3-days have been up in the last 10) to see a big down day as the “weak hands” fold and sell their positions. That creates a big down day and the smart money buys. My guess is that we start up from here, either Wednesday or in the next day or two. But there’s another side…

 

…News can always make my analysis worthless – if the Eurozone is under real pressure (not just the babble of news-media) the markets will continue down. Political problems in Italy were blamed for today’s selloff.

 

My daily sum of 17 Indicators slipped from -1 to -2, while the 10-day smoothed version slipped from +29 to +21. Conditions are weaker than 10-days ago but not falling rapidly right now so no need to get too worried – a little worry is OK.

 

I’ve been talking about 2700 as an important point. The drop below it is somewhat of a concern, but only if it drops much further. The Index remains above its 50-dMA (2673) and that may be more important now.

 

My longer-term indicator system remains bullish.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:  

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. (On 5 Apr 2018 I corrected a coding/graphing error that has consistently shown Nike incorrectly.)

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained Neutral on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).   

18 Apr 2018 I increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. (It has since turned Neutral.) For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. 50% is my minimum unless I am in full defense mode.

 

On 10 May 2018 I added stock positions to increase Stock investments to 58% based on more evidence that the correction is over. I’ll sell these new positions quickly if the market turns down.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Tuesday, the Price and VIX Indicators were positive; Volume and Sentiment indicators were neutral. Overall this is a BULLISH indication.

Durable Goods Orders … Michigan Sentiment … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

DURABLE GOODS (MarketWatch)

Durable-goods orders fell 1.7% April, but the dropoff stemmed almost entirely from a decline in contracts for Boeing BA, +0.30%  planes. Most businesses took in more orders and increased investment last month.” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/durable-goods-orders-sink-17-in-april-but-strip-out-boeing-planes-and-the-numbers-look-good-2018-05-25

 

MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Bloomberg)

“Consumer sentiment in the U.S. settled back to a four-month low in May amid less-favorable buying conditions for homes and big-ticket items, according to a University of Michigan report Friday.” Story at…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-25/americans-sentiment-eases-on-less-favorable-buying-conditions

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Friday the S&P 500 was down about 0.2% to 2721.

-VIX rose about 6% to 13.22. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.928%.

 

My daily sum of 17 Indicators remained -1, while the 10-day smoothed version slipped from +36 to +29. This is a mildly bearish indication. My longer-term indicator system remains bullish. It is possible that the S&P 500 Index will retest of the 200-dMA.  That’s a critical point for market health. Before we get there, the Index would have to break its lower trend line and that is now coinciding with the 100-dMA at 2711.  That’s the 2700 range area I’ve mentioned previously a couple of times. I would get concerned if we break 2700 for more than a day since it could herald more selling and a trend change.  My opinion is that we’re in an uptrend and will remain so. I think the S&P 500 will bounce up from the 2700 area should it get that low – we’ll see.

 

I’m cautiously optimistic in the near term. We need to see the market hold the 100-dMA (2711); then I’ll feel more confident.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:  

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. (On 5 Apr 2018 I corrected a coding/graphing error that has consistently shown Nike incorrectly.)

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained Neutral on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

 

 

18 Apr 2018 I increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. (It has since turned Neutral.) For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. 50% is my minimum unless I am in full defense mode.

 

On 10 May 2018 I added stock positions to increase Stock investments to 58% based on more evidence that the correction is over. I’ll sell these new positions quickly if the market turns down.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Friday, the Price and VIX Indicators were positive; Volume and Sentiment indicators were neutral. Overall this is a BULLISH indication, but I don’t completely trust VIX at this point.

Jobless Claims … Existing Home Sales … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

JOBLESS CLAIMS (MarketWatch)

“The rate of layoffs in the U.S. rose in early May to a seven-week high, but the increase is probably tied to seasonal swings in education-related employment.

Initial jobless claims rose by 11,000 to 234,000 in the week ended May 19…” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-rise-to-7-week-high-of-23400-2018-05-24

 

EXSTNG HOME SALES (Reuters)

“U.S. home sales dropped more than expected in April as a shortage of properties for sale continued to weigh on the market. The National Association of Realtors said on Thursday that existing home sales fell 2.5 percent…” Story at…

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-economy-housing/us-existing-home-sales-drop-25-percent-in-april-idUSL2N1SP0XQ

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Thursday the S&P 500 was down about 0.2% to 2728.

-VIX dipped about 0.4% to 12.53. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at 2.985%.

 

The S&P 500 dropped to its 100-dMA intra-day and bounced up and made a recovery from there – it just couldn’t get back into positive territory. The Index has been treading water for 2-weeks – now it’s time to make a move. I think the move will be up. Let’s hope so because a drop below the 100-dMA and the lower trend line around 2700 will probably bring on more selling.

 

My daily sum of 17 Indicators remained -1, while the 10-day smoothed version slipped from +42 to +36. This is a mildly bearish indication. My longer-term indicators are bullish.

 

I’m guarded in the near term. We need to see the market hold the 2700 area; then I’ll feel more confident.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:  

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. (On 5 Apr 2018 I corrected a coding/graphing error that has consistently shown Nike incorrectly.)

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained Neutral on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

 

18 Apr 2018 I increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. (It has since turned Neutral.) For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. 50% is my minimum unless I am in full defense mode.

 

On 10 May 2018 I added stock positions to increase Stock investments to 58% based on more evidence that the correction is over. I’ll sell these new positions quickly if the market turns down.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Thursday, the Price and VIX Indicators were positive; Volume and Sentiment indicators were neutral. Overall this is a BULLISH indication, but I don’t completely trust VIX at this point.

FOMC Minutes … Home Sales … Crude Inventories … Stock Market Analysis… ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

FOMC MINUTES (NYTimes)

“Federal Reserve officials gave no indication that they are likely to speed up their pace of interest rate increases during their most recent two-day meeting, suggesting instead that they would be willing to allow the inflation rate to rise slightly above 2 percent for a “temporary period,” while the economy continues to expand.” Story at…

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/23/business/fed-minutes-may-meeting.html

My cmt: The market apparently liked the report because the market improved from the release of the Fed minutes thru the end of the trading session.  

 

NEW HOME SALES (Reuters)

“Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell less than expected in April amid a rise in transactions in the South and Northeast, and data for the prior three months was revised lower, suggesting the housing market was struggling to regain momentum.” Story at…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/us-new-home-sales-fall-in-april-housing-market-treading-water-idUSKCN1IO22A

My cmt: Home sales are watched closely since some think they are a good predictor of recession.

 

CRUDE INVENTORIES (OilPrice.com)

“As crude oil begins to slide back down on talk about a possible easing of the OPEC+ production cuts, the Energy Information Administration added to bearish sentiment by reporting a hefty build in crude oil inventories of 5.8 million barrels for the week ending May 18.” Story at…

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Crude-Gasoline-Prices-Slip-On-Inventory-Build.html

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Wednesday the S&P 500 was up about 0.3% to 2733.

-VIX dropped about 5% to 12.58. 

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.986%.

 

It was an odd day. The price action was pretty good after the FED released its minutes, but Market Internals were weak at the close. Declining volume exceeded advancing volume and, in a big, negative surprise, 52-week lows outpaced 52-week highs for the day. With weak internals it should come as no surprise to see my indicators weak as well.

 

My daily sum of 17 Indicators slipped from +3 to -1, while the 10-day smoothed version slipped from +49 to +42. It’s still bullish, but the trend is turning down. My first impression today was to conclude that the market action was all about the FED and we would have clear sailing at least for a while since the S&P 500 improved after the FED minutes. Today’s internals suggest the market may still have other issues to digest and that view is also supported by the futures that are down as I write this.   

 

I’m guarded in the near term. We need to see the market hold the 2700 area; then I’ll feel more bullish. My longer-term indicators are bullish; the near term is an issue. We’ll have to wait to see how it resolves.

 

MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:  

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. (On 5 Apr 2018 I corrected a coding/graphing error that has consistently shown Nike incorrectly.)

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained Neutral on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

 

18 Apr 2018 I increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. (It has since turned Neutral.) For me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. 50% is my minimum unless I am in full defense mode.

 

On 10 May 2018 I added stock positions to increase Stock investments to 58% based on more evidence that the correction is over. I’ll sell these new positions quickly if the market turns down.

 

INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR

Intermediate/Long-Term Indicator: Wednesday, the Price and VIX Indicators were positive; Volume and Sentiment indicators were neutral. Overall this is a BULLISH indication, but I don’t completely trust VIX at this point.