“The NFIB said that small business earnings were the
highest in the history of its survey, which dates back to 1973, and also noted
that small business optimism increased in April to a level in the top 95th
percentile of its all-time average.” Story at…
JOLTS (Reuters)
“U.S. job openings surged to a record high in March,
suggesting that a recent slowdown in hiring was probably the result of
employers having difficulties finding qualified workers. Job openings, a
measure of labor demand, increased by 472,000 to a seasonally adjusted 6.6
million…” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was a down a point to 2672.
-VIX dropped about 0.3% to 14.71.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed to
2.977%.
My daily sum of 17 Indicators remained unchanged at +3;
the 10-day smoothed version improved from -41 to -33. The basket of Market Internals I track
remained Positive on the markets.
Indicators are a repeat of yesterday:
Money Trend is positive. Smart Money (late-day trading)
is neutral. NYSE Breadth is improving faster than the S&P 500 index and
that’s bullish. The Industrial cyclical ETF (XLI) turned up today; over the
last 10-days it’s improving vs. the S&P 500 – that’s bullish.
New-high/new-low data is improving. Bollinger Bands and RS are neutral. Not too
many indicators are Bearish. Most are bullish or neutral.
The Index remained slightly below the 50-day moving
average (50-dMA). We’re still waiting for a close above the 50-day. That should
bring on some more buyers.
My plan ahead remains: If the S&P 500 drops to its
prior low of 2581 and there is an unsuccessful retest, I will probably cut stock
holdings again. If we see a successful test I’ll be adding to stocks. Breadth
is improving
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. As one can see
below in both momentum charts, there are still a lot of issues in negative
territory, i.e., they have weak upward momentum. That’s just an indication that
the market is in correction mode and most stocks have been headed down.
Momentum has gotten worse in the last week or so. Today, conditions were more
positive. 100% of the ETFs were up – it has been a month since we saw all the
ETF’s up on a day.
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3
Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.)
XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. (On 5 Apr 2018 I
corrected a coding/graphing error that has consistently shown Nike
incorrectly.)
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
Apple (AAPL) has moved up 17 positions in the last 10-days.
It has a PE of 18 vs. the DOW PE of 41. The DOW PE is high due to a couple of
non-earners in the DOW, but at 18, AAPL has one of the lower PE’s in the DOW. I
may buy it if the S&P 500 can break above its 50-dMA.
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained Positive on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
18 Apr 2018 I
increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. (It has since turned Neutral.) For
me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. 50% is my minimum unless
I am in full defense mode.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator: Tuesday, the Volume, VIX, Price and Sentiment indicators were
neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.
