“Unemployment lines across the U.S. last week were the
shortest since December 1969, according to a Labor Department report Thursday…Jobless
claims decreased by 8k to 207k (est. 220k).” Story at…
PHILADELPHIA FED (Peoples Pundit Daily)
“The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Manufacturing Business
Outlook Survey gained 6 points to 25.7 in July, easily beating
the consensus forecast.” Story at…
LEI (Conference Board)
“The
Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S.
increased 0.5 percent in June to 109.8 (2016 = 100), following no change in
May, and a 0.4 percent increase in April. “The U.S. LEI increased in June,
pointing to continuing solid growth in the U.S. economy,” said Ataman
Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference
Board. “The widespread growth in leading indicators, with the exception of
housing permits which declined once again, does not suggest any considerable
growth slowdown in the short-term.” Press release at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 was down about 0.4% to 2804.
-VIX was up about 6% to 12.87.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.851%.
It’s been a long day so I’ll keep this short…
Today the S&P 500 dropped about 0.4%. You wouldn’t know
by looking at the stats. Advancing
volume was 47%, not a great number, but not terrible either. Fully 60% of all stocks
on the NYSE were up today. Since the
major indices usually follow the majority, we may see the market resume its
climb Friday, baring bad news.
My daily sum of 17 Indicators slipped from -2 to -4 while
the 10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations dropped from +10
to +8.
I remain fully invested.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3
Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.)
XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. (On 5 Apr 2018 I
corrected a coding/graphing error that had consistently shown Nike
incorrectly.)
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
GE has been removed from my DOW 30 chart and Walgreens
Boots Alliance (WBA) has been added to match the official DOW 30. WBA is best known for operating Walgreens
drug stores.
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained Neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
18 Apr 2018 I
increased stock investments from 35% to 50% based on the Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator that turned positive on the 17th. (It has since turned Neutral.) For
me, fully invested is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. 50% is my minimum unless
I am in full defense mode.
On 10 May 2018 I
added stock positions to increase Stock investments to 58% based on more
evidence that the correction is over. This is high for me given that we are
late in this cycle (and as a retiree), but it indicates my bullishness after the
correction. I’ll sell these new positions quickly if the market turns down.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator: Thursday, the Volume, VIX, Price & Sentiment indicators were
neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.
