“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“The big money is not in the buying and selling. But in
the waiting.” - Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway
“People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It
is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders
of magnitude.” – Michael “Big Short” Burry.
JOBLESS CLAIMS (FOX Business)
“The number of Americans filing for first-time jobless benefits last
week unexpectedly rose from pandemic-era lows to their
highest level since early June... 419,000 Americans filed for initial jobless
benefits in the week ending July 17...” Story at...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/intial-jobless-claims-climb-off-pandemic-lows
EXISTING HOME SALES (CNBC)
“After four straight months of declines, sales of
previously owned homes rose 1.4% in June...” Story at...
LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Conference Board)
“The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for
the U.S. increased by 0.7 percent in June to 115.1 (2016 = 100), following
a 1.2 percent increase in May and a 1.3 percent increase in April. "June's
gain in the U.S. LEI was broad-based and, despite negative contributions from
housing permits and average workweek, suggests that strong economic growth will
continue in the near term," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of
Economic Research at The Conference Board.” Press release at...
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website
as of 9:30 PM Thursday. US total case numbers are on the left axis; daily
numbers are on the right side of the graph with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in
Green.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 4367.
-VIX declined about 1% to 17.69.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 1.280%.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from -4 to -2 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum
that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -76 to -72. (These numbers sometimes
change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most of these
indicators are short-term and many are trend following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD. Volume, VIX, Price & Sentiment are neutral.
I remain cautiously bullish.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
Using the Short-term indicator
in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold.
The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE
indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test
included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.
My stock-allocation is about 50%
invested in stocks. I am not super bullish (or bearish) and I am watching the
markets closely.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees. As a
retiree, 50% in the stock market is about fully invested for me – it is a
cautious and conservative number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%;
if a correction is deep enough, and I can call a bottom, 80% would not be out
of the question.
