Friday there were 5 bull indicators:
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is rising.
-The
10-dMA % of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-My Money Trend indicator is climbing.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data is rising.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA
are both ABOVE the 20-dEMA.
Today, none of those indicators are bullish. It looks
like today’s count would be 21 bear and zero bull. That’s the worst count since I started
keeping these numbers a couple years ago.
I am also concerned that the new-high data was low at the
S&P 500 high. As noted previously,
that suggests a correction greater than 10%, based on past history – of course it’s
no guarantee.
Based on volumes around mid-day, today is close to a
panic day, so we could see a bounce tomorrow.
Watch the close for clues.
I sold XLE at a loss; that cuts my stock holdings to
roughly 45%. I may sell more later
depending on how this pullback goes. So far the S&P 500 is down about 3.7% (around
1PM ET).
The S&P 500 is testing its 1 Dec low today, but it
appears that it will be on higher volume (we’ll find out at the close) with
worse internals so this is not likely to be the end of this pullback.
