“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“We're eight months into this pandemic, and Donald Trump
still doesn't have a plan to get this virus under control. I do.” Joe Biden,
the candidate, 15 Oct 2020...
"...Look,
there is no federal solution. This gets solved at state level.”
President Joe Biden, 27 Dec. 2021.
Just another example of why I hate politicians – almost all
politicians, left and right.
MORE TRUMP CLAIMS VERIFIED AS FALSE (msn.com)
“Despite former President Donald Trump's claims that
thousands of dead voters cast a ballot in Georgia's 2020 presidential
election...An investigation conducted by the Georgia attorney general's office,
first reported by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, found that just
four of the over 4 million ballots cast were signed by a voter who had died,
all of them sent by relatives of the deceased.” Story at...
Trump
Claimed Thousands of Dead Voted in Georgia Election, Investigation Found Only
Four (msn.com)
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as
of 7:30 PM ET Tuesday. U.S. total case numbers are on the left axis; daily
numbers are on the right side of the graph in Red with the 10-dMA of daily
numbers in Green. I added the smoothed 10-dMA of new cases (in purple) to the
chart.
Numbers are really high today – 400,000 new cases. The
good news is that for most fully-vaxed people, the symptoms are the same as a cold.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% to 4786.
-VIX fell about 1% to 17.54
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.486%.
The 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE was above 50%
and that suggests a broadening market. The 50-dMA of breadth remains below 50%,
still a bad sign.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from +4 to +5
today (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -35 to -25 (The
trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.)
These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes
in late. Most of these indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around
a lot.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble remained HOLD. VIX, Volume, Price & Sentiment are Neutral.
I am a cautious Bull. We’ll
see how long this market can keep going.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals remained BUY.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
My stock-allocation in the
portfolio is now about 50% invested in stocks; this is my “normal” fully
invested stock-allocation of 50%. I trade about 15-20% of the total
portfolio.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a general rule, some
suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s
age subtracted from 100. So, a
30-year-old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual
funds and/or stock ETFs. That’s ok, but
for older investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested
in stocks (as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in
the portfolio to keep up with inflation.
