“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“-Non-farm payrolls: +315,000 vs. +298,000 expected
-Unemployment rate: 3.7% vs. 3.5% expected
-Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: +0.3% vs. +0.4% expected
-Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: +5.2% vs. +5.3% expected”
Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/august-jobs-report-september-2-2022-220121393.html
“A report released by the Commerce Department on Friday unexpectedly showed a sharp pullback in new orders for U.S. manufactured goods in the month of July. The Commerce Department said factory orders slumped by 1.0 percent in July after surging by a revised 1.8 percent in June.” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3309102/u-s-factory-orders-unexpectedly-show-sharp-pullback-in-july.aspx
“When the S&P has been down YTD (year to date) through the end of August (as it is this year), the index has averaged a decline of 3.4% in September, whereas September has been flat when the index was up YTD heading into the month,” they wrote. “For the remainder of the year, the index has averaged a loss of 1.2% when coming into September with YTD losses and a gain of 3.3% when coming into September up YTD. “
What history says about September and the stock market after summer bounce runs out of steam (msn.com)
-Friday the S&P 500 fell about 1.1% to 3924.
-VIX surprisingly dropped about 0.4% to 25.47.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.199%.
-Drop from Top: 18.2% as of today. 23.6% max.
-Trading Days since Top: 168-days.
The S&P 500 is 8.5% Below its 200-dMA & 2.4% Below its 50-dMA.
- Support points for the rally are around 3900, the early July highs, and the prior correction low of 3667. We should test the prior correction low.
SH, short the S&P 500 ETF.
SDS, 2x short S&P 500 ETF.
I have built these positions to significantly large values, although I am still not net short.
On Fridays, I summarize a number of indicators to get a weekly feel for trend. The Friday rundown of indicators remained solidly bearish (15-bear and 6-bull). These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily. Details follow:
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50.
-The longer-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is Bullish.
-RSI
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is rising.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising, but just barely. This is one of my favorite trend indicators.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-There were 5 Distribution Days over the last 2 weeks, but 5 is not enough to send a signal.
-Bollinger Bands, but close to oversold.
-VIX.
-The size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month, but not enough to send a signal.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500 were bearish 25 Aug...Now neutral.
-Sentiment.
-There have been 5 Statistically-Significant day (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days...neutral.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator.
-The Smart Money (late-day action) is mixed.
-There have been 8 up-days over the last 20 sessions –neutral.
-There have been 3 up-days over the last 10 sessions – neutral.
-The short-term, 10-day, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%. (3 days in a row is my “correction-now” signal)
-The S&P 500 is 8.5% below its 200-dMA. (Bull indicator is 12% below the 200-day, although this is based on “normal” pullbacks.)
-There was an Inverse Zweig Breadth Collapse (negative Breadth Thrust) 21 June. That’s a rare, very-bearish sign, but it was several-weeks ago.
-The 52-week, New-high/new-low ratio improved by 0.7 standard deviations on 15 July – too small to send a signal.
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 8 April – it was canceled when the McClellan Oscillator turned bullish.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. – It proved correct, but is now Expired
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bearish crossover 30 Aug.
-The 10-dMA % of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%
-26 Aug was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day.
-26 Aug was a bearish, 90%-down-volume day.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bearish crossover 22 Aug.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-McClellan Oscillator is negative.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is falling.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is SELL; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA are both below the 20-dEMA.
-Cyclical Industrials (XLI-ETF) are out-performing the S&P 500, but falling sharply so I’ll call it bearish.
-Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is falling.
-My Money Trend indicator is falling.
-Only 34% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days.
-S&P 500 is underperforming the Utilities (XLU).
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…Here’s the revised DOW 30 and its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
