“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“We are experiencing a near total failure of leadership
in our country. Politicians on both sides are fueling rage for personal and
political advantage. It is a dangerous and craven form of demagoguery. James
Freeman Clarke once said that “a politician thinks of the next election; a statesman
thinks of the next generation.” We have far too many politicians today and far
too few statesmen at an increasingly perilous time for our country.” – Jonathan
Turley, Shapiro Chair for Public Interest Law at the George Washington University Law
School. From...
https://jonathanturley.org/2022/09/08/a-dangerous-escalation-fifty-six-percent-of-voters-president-biden-sought-to-incite-conflict/#more-193577
PPI (CNBC)
“The producer price index, a gauge of prices received at
the wholesale level, fell 0.1%, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics
report Wednesday. Excluding food, energy and trade services, PPI increased
0.2%...Wholesale services prices increased 0.4% for the month, indicating a
further transition for a Covid
pandemic-era economy where goods inflation soared. ” Story
at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/14/producer-price-index-august-2022.html
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.4 million barrels from the
previous week. At 429.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
2% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 3946.
-VIX fell about 4% to 26.16.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.408%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 17.7% as of today. 23.6% max.
-Trading Days since Top: 175-days.
The S&P 500 is 7.5% Below its 200-dMA & 2.4%
Above its 50-dMA.
Support looks like the prior low, 3667.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, we hope to be able to call the bottom when we see
it.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SH, short the S&P 500 ETF.
SDS, 2x short S&P 500 ETF.
I have built these positions to significantly large
values, although I am still not net short.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
As expected, there was a bounce today. We’ll get a better idea of overall market
direction in the next several days. Indicators are about evenly balanced. I
suspect they will break down, but I’ll just have to wait and see.
I have been saying for a while that I think we remain in
a selling stampede. Maybe-maybe not. Selling stampedes usually last 17 – 25
sessions, with only 1.5-to three-day pauses/throwback rallies, before they
exhaust themselves on the downside. As of today, this downturn has lasted 19-days,
but we might need to start a new count since we did recently have 4 up-days in
a row.
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from -1 to
+2 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed
sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +21 to +25. (The trend
direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These
numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in
late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce
around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long
Term NTSM indicator improve to HOLD: VOLUME, SENTIMENT, PRICE & VIX are
neutral. I expect the S&P 500 to test its prior low of 3667. Remember for
the longer-term, one indicator trumps them all – “Don’t fight the FED.”
I’m a Bear; a retest of the prior lows (or close to the
lows) seems likely.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM
RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked
based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained NEUTRAL.
(Market Internals are a decent trend-following
analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term
trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
My stock-allocation in the
portfolio is now roughly 30% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
