“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for
corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections
themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan®
fund.
UNPRECEDENTED SNOW STORM PARALYZES GULF COAST (CNN)
“A major winter storm slammed the US Gulf Coast Tuesday, blanketing parts of a region largely unaccustomed to extreme winter weather with record-breaking snowfall.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/22/weather/winter-storm-south-wednesday-hnk/index.html
BIDEN PARDON OF VIOLENT CRIMINALS GETS FBI PUSHBACK (ABC News)
“President Joe Biden has sparked outrage after commuting the sentence of Leonard Peltier in a last-minute move before leaving office Monday...
... ‘Mr. President, I urge you in the strongest terms possible: Do not pardon Leonard Peltier or cut his sentence short,’ Wray [Former FBI Director] wrote. ‘It would be shattering to the victims' loved ones and undermine the principles of justice and accountability that our government should represent... ‘Peliter is a remorseless killer, who brutally murdered two of our own–Special Agents Jack Coler and Ronald Williams,’ Wray wrote. 'Granting Peltier any relief from his conviction or sentence is wholly unjustified and would be an affront to the rule of law.’" Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-sparks-outrage-minute-commutation-leonard-peltier-man/story?id=117909582
My cmt: ...and he pardoned all his family.
TRUMP PARDON OF JANUARY 6 DEFENDENTS GETS GOP PUSHBACK
(NBC News)
“A handful of Republican senators pushed back Tuesday against President Donald Trump’s decision to issue pardons to roughly 1,500 criminal defendants and commute the sentences of more than a dozen others in connection to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. Some of the GOP senators specifically criticized the pardons for those convicted of committing violence against police officers...” Story at...
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/trump-jan-6-pardons-pushback-republican-senators-rcna188609
WHITE HOUSE CALL TO A RIOTER INSIDE THE CAPITAL (CNN)
“At 4:34 pm on January 6, 2021, a cell phone registered to a Capitol rioter who had stormed the building, received a phone call from a White House landline, according to records obtained by CNN.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/26/politics/mysterious-phone-call-white-house-rioter-jan-6/index.html
COMMUNICATIONS BETWEEN PROUD BOYS AND TRUMP ASSOCIATE
BEFORE JANUARY 6 (NY Times)
“A member of the far-right nationalist Proud Boys was in communication with a person associated with the White House in the days just before the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol, according to a law enforcement official briefed on the investigation.” Story at...
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/05/us/politics/trump-proud-boys-capitol-riot.html
My cmt: These communications are circumstantial evidence that Trump was involved with the January 6 riots to a significant extent. His goal was to delay and confuse the electoral count. He condemned his Vice President, Mike Pence, for going ahead with the electoral count; he promoted false electoral college members for the same reason. Republicans controlled Congress and this was a desperate attempt to retain the Presidency by sending the election to the House of Representatives. It didn’t work because Mike Pence followed the Constitution. Trump was unable to overturn the election. The result? ...
...Now we have criminals pardoning their fellow criminals. Biden and Trump - what a couple of losers.
P.S. I didn’t vote for either of these clowns (or Harris either).
LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (Conference Board)
“The Index fell slightly in December failing to sustain November’s increase,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Low consumer confidence about future business conditions, still relatively weak manufacturing orders, an increase in initial claims for unemployment, and a decline in building permits contributed to the decline. Still, half of the 10 components of the index contributed positively in December. Moreover, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates were less negative, signaling fewer headwinds to US economic activity ahead. Nonetheless, we expect growth momentum to remain strong to start the year and US real GDP to expand by 2.3% in 2025.” Story at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 6086.
-VIX rose about 0.3% to 15.10.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.613%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
SPY – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
QLD – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
NVDA – added 1/6/2025
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators
minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to +14 (14 more Bull
indicators than Bear indicators).
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of +14 is Bullish. The 10-dMA of the spread is also moving higher, another bull-sign. While the spread slipped today, it is not unusual, especially after it made a new high yesterday. The CNBC contributors on the mid-day show commented that breadth was poor today. It was, but that’s not a concern. It’s only one day.
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50%
invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I
am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market
position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
“A major winter storm slammed the US Gulf Coast Tuesday, blanketing parts of a region largely unaccustomed to extreme winter weather with record-breaking snowfall.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/22/weather/winter-storm-south-wednesday-hnk/index.html
BIDEN PARDON OF VIOLENT CRIMINALS GETS FBI PUSHBACK (ABC News)
“President Joe Biden has sparked outrage after commuting the sentence of Leonard Peltier in a last-minute move before leaving office Monday...
... ‘Mr. President, I urge you in the strongest terms possible: Do not pardon Leonard Peltier or cut his sentence short,’ Wray [Former FBI Director] wrote. ‘It would be shattering to the victims' loved ones and undermine the principles of justice and accountability that our government should represent... ‘Peliter is a remorseless killer, who brutally murdered two of our own–Special Agents Jack Coler and Ronald Williams,’ Wray wrote. 'Granting Peltier any relief from his conviction or sentence is wholly unjustified and would be an affront to the rule of law.’" Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-sparks-outrage-minute-commutation-leonard-peltier-man/story?id=117909582
My cmt: ...and he pardoned all his family.
“A handful of Republican senators pushed back Tuesday against President Donald Trump’s decision to issue pardons to roughly 1,500 criminal defendants and commute the sentences of more than a dozen others in connection to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. Some of the GOP senators specifically criticized the pardons for those convicted of committing violence against police officers...” Story at...
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/trump-jan-6-pardons-pushback-republican-senators-rcna188609
“At 4:34 pm on January 6, 2021, a cell phone registered to a Capitol rioter who had stormed the building, received a phone call from a White House landline, according to records obtained by CNN.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/26/politics/mysterious-phone-call-white-house-rioter-jan-6/index.html
“A member of the far-right nationalist Proud Boys was in communication with a person associated with the White House in the days just before the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol, according to a law enforcement official briefed on the investigation.” Story at...
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/05/us/politics/trump-proud-boys-capitol-riot.html
My cmt: These communications are circumstantial evidence that Trump was involved with the January 6 riots to a significant extent. His goal was to delay and confuse the electoral count. He condemned his Vice President, Mike Pence, for going ahead with the electoral count; he promoted false electoral college members for the same reason. Republicans controlled Congress and this was a desperate attempt to retain the Presidency by sending the election to the House of Representatives. It didn’t work because Mike Pence followed the Constitution. Trump was unable to overturn the election. The result? ...
...Now we have criminals pardoning their fellow criminals. Biden and Trump - what a couple of losers.
P.S. I didn’t vote for either of these clowns (or Harris either).
“The Index fell slightly in December failing to sustain November’s increase,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Low consumer confidence about future business conditions, still relatively weak manufacturing orders, an increase in initial claims for unemployment, and a decline in building permits contributed to the decline. Still, half of the 10 components of the index contributed positively in December. Moreover, the LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates were less negative, signaling fewer headwinds to US economic activity ahead. Nonetheless, we expect growth momentum to remain strong to start the year and US real GDP to expand by 2.3% in 2025.” Story at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 6086.
-VIX rose about 0.3% to 15.10.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.613%.
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SPY – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
QLD – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
NVDA – added 1/6/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of +14 is Bullish. The 10-dMA of the spread is also moving higher, another bull-sign. While the spread slipped today, it is not unusual, especially after it made a new high yesterday. The CNBC contributors on the mid-day show commented that breadth was poor today. It was, but that’s not a concern. It’s only one day.
I am bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
