“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Representative Robert Garcia, a California Democrat and ranking member on the House Oversight Committee, slammed ABC’s decision to suspend Jimmy Kimmel’s show.” From...
Jimmy Kimmel’s late night show pulled off air ‘indefinitely’ after Charlie Kirk comments: Live Updates
My cmt: So Kimmel thinks the shooter was MAGA?
I rarely listen to right-wing radio because it’s so predictably pro-Trump, but I was curious about their position on the Kimmel firing. I was a little surprised to find that “Clay & Buck” (Fox radio, noon to 3 locally) were opposed to his firing. For them, it was a matter of content and they were not happy that a comedian got fired for an off-hand comment. They recognized with different parties in power; the powers might come for them.
The student, who has not been named, was caught on camera mimicking the conservative influencer’s killing in an apparent attempt to taunt a group of his supporters on the school’s campus.” Story at...
Texas University student expelled for mocking Charlie Kirk murder
“During the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the Russian government engaged in a sophisticated strategy to influence the U.S. political system and manipulate American democracy. While most news reports have focused on the cyber-attacks aimed at Democratic Party leaders and possible contacts between Russian officials and the Trump presidential campaign, a more pernicious intervention took place. Throughout the campaign, Russian operatives created hundreds of fake personas on social media platforms and then posted thousands of advertisements and messages that sought to promote racial divisions in the United States. This was a coordinated propaganda effort.” - Michigan Journal of Race and Law > Volume 24 > Issue 2 (2019) Story at...
https://repository.law.umich.edu/mjrl/vol24/iss2/2/
My cmt: Some of the current political vitriol on both sides is fomented by Russian & Chinese intelligence – count on it.
“Responses to the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest regional manufacturing activity weakened this month. The indicators for current activity and new orders dipped into negative territory, while the shipments index declined but remained positive. On balance, the firms indicated an increase in employment, and the price indexes rose further above their long-run averages. The survey’s broad indicators for future activity suggest that firms continue to expect growth over the next six months.” Report at...
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/mbos-2025-08
“Initial applications for jobless benefits in the US dropped by the most in nearly four years, reversing an unusually large jump in the prior week and consistent with low levels of layoffs in the economy. Initial claims decreased by 33,000 to 231,000 in the week ended Sept. 13, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. That’s in line with levels seen throughout this year and not far off the pre-pandemic trend...” Story at...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-18/us-initial-jobless-claims-drop-by-most-in-almost-four-years
“In August, the US LEI registered its largest monthly decline since April 2025...Among its components, only stock prices and the Leading Credit Index supported the LEI in August and over the past six months...Overall, the LEI suggests that economic activity will continue to slow. A major driver of this slowdown has been higher tariffs, which already trimmed growth in H1 2025 and will continue to be a drag on GDP growth in the second half of this year and in H1 2026. The Conference Board, while not forecasting recession currently, expects GDP to grow by only 1.6% in 2025...” Story at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/?utm_term=&utm_campaign=TCB+%7C+C-Suite+Perspectives+%7C+PMAX&utm_source=adwords&utm_medium=ppc&hsa_acc=7966952753&hsa_cam=22625443146&hsa_grp=&hsa_ad=&hsa_src=x&hsa_tgt=&hsa_kw=&hsa_mt=&hsa_net=adwords&hsa_ver=3&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=22631709008&gbraid=0AAAAADpIWanHDVe5qBMZaV4eAD4PttFiu&gclid=Cj0KCQjw267GBhCSARIsAOjVJ4HwuH9OJq8PJjABR4pztLk9Ag58ocFS1UWad3VSgKfdg8oR8uA9O6oaAmjTEALw_wcB
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 6632.
-VIX declined about 0.1% to 15.70.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.11% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from 11 to +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) and is giving a Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it reversed down – a bearish sign.
I am bullish until proven otherwise. We can re-evaluate when the S&P 500 reaches its upper trend line.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
