Payroll Report ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
RFK OPERATION WARPED MEMORY (WSJ)
“Is Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suffering from long Covid? His memory was foggy during a Senate hearing on Thursday, in which the Health and Human Services Secretary hailed as “genius” President Trump’s Operation Warp Speed, which produced Covid vaccines in record time. Mr. Trump must have liked hearing that. But these are the same vaccines that RFK has also called “a crime against humanity.”... He has called the Covid jabs the “deadliest vaccine ever made.” Last month he moved to end $500 million in contracts for other mRNA vaccine development...“In your confirmation hearings, you promised to uphold the highest standards for vaccines,” Wyoming GOP Sen. John Barrasso said. “Since then, I’ve grown deeply concerned.” Mr. Kennedy struggled to defend his inconsistencies.” – The Editorial Board, WSJ. Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/rfk-jr-operation-warp-speed-covid-vaccines-donald-trump-10f56acc?mod=opinion_lead_pos4
My cmt: What a nut case - Trump’s worst appointment.
 
"When I see all these senators trying to lecture and 'gotcha' Bobby Kennedy today all I can think is: You all support off-label, untested, and irreversible hormonal 'therapies' for children, mutilating our kids and enriching big pharma. You're full of s--- and everyone knows it." – JD Vance. VP of the United States.   
My cmt. What a tasteless comment from the VP of the United States.
 
DOCTORED IMAGE OF TRUMP? (Snopes)

 

Is this a legitimate photo or was it altered? Snopes asked California Governor’s Newsome’s office for a comment since they had disseminated the photo. Their response? "Of course it's edited — that's why it's so funny. We posted it so the world can laugh at the bumbling, senile President of the United States," Izzy Gordon, director of communications for Newsom's office, said in response to our [Snopes] inquiry.”  The original photo of Trump was taken by an Associated Press photographer in July 2022. Story at...
Doctored image of Trump spreads online amid health concerns
My cmt: Remind me again why I hate all politicians.

“The supreme leader of the world’s greatest superpower is, objectively, a Soviet, or Russian, asset. He functions as an asset... I am saying that, objectively, the new U.S. leadership has strategically favored the Russian Federation.” - Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. 
 
TRUMP MURDERS DRUG SMUGGLERS? (WSJ-but my headline)
“President Trump was operating within his constitutional powers as commander in chief when he ordered the U.S. military to destroy a vessel in the Caribbean, administration officials said, describing the drugs it was allegedly smuggling as an imminent national security threat. But that claim was sharply disputed by legal experts and some lawmakers, who said that Trump exceeded his legal authority by using lethal military force against a target that posed no direct danger to the U.S. and doing so without congressional authorization...Unlike the interdictions which are usually conducted by the U.S. Coast Guard, the strike was carried out without warning shots, and no effort was made to detain the ship, apprehend its crew, or confirm the drugs on board. “Instead of interdicting it, on the president’s orders they blew it up,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in Mexico City on Wednesday... “You don’t just send a missile and destroy a boat. It is the equivalent of a police officer walking up to a drug trafficker on the street and shooting him” [said Mike Vigil, a former DEA director of international operations.] Story at...
Did a Boat Strike in Caribbean Exceed Trump’s Authority to Use Military Force?
My cmt: Disturbing. The US chose to attack and kill the crew of an open boat in international waters. There could have been American citizens on board. Yes, they were probably drug smugglers, but the attack is another Trumpian failure to follow the law.
 
PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (CNBC)
“Job creation sputtered in August, adding to recent signs of labor market weakening and likely keeping the Federal Reserve on track for a widely anticipated interest rate cut later this month. Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 for the month, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3...” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/05/jobs-report-august-2025.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 6482.
-VIX declined about 1% to 15.18. (The Options players are not worried.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.076% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +13 to +14 (14 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) and is now giving a Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread remained headed upward – another Bullish sign.
 
The Jobs Report was weak today.  The markets liked the news at first and increased, but on reflection, decided that a slowing economy might be a worry. The news was not great, but not bad enough to suggest a half point reduction in Fed rates. According to CME Fed Watch, the probability of a quarter point rate cut is now 88% for the 17 September Fed meeting.
 
Friday there was a Bearish outside reversal:
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session...Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.
 
Friday, the Bolinger Band Squeeze remains in place. As noted yesterday:
Today, there was a Bollinger Squeeze signal that occurs when Bollinger Bands are close together. “A Bollinger Band... is defined by a series of lines that are plotted two standard deviations—both positively and negatively—away from the simple moving average (SMA) of the price of an asset... A Squeeze is triggered when volatility reaches a six-month low and is identified when Bollinger Bands reach a six-month minimum distance apart...” The Bollinger Squeeze predicts a big move (breakout) in the S&P 500, but it doesn’t tell us the direction of such a move. To determine breakout direction, Bollinger suggests looking at other indicators. He suggests using the relative strength index (RSI). Bollinger bands are discussed at Investopedia...
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/accumulationdistribution.asp
RSI is near the middle of its range so it will not tell us what direction a breakout may be. In addition, Bollinger mentions a few other indicators I don’t use.  From my indicators we see that the daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to a Bullish +14 (14 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) and the 10-dMA of the spread is now rising – a bullish sign. This suggests the breakout should be upward.
 
All of the ETFs that I track for momentum purposes are above their respective 120-dMAs.  That signals a top, but declines following the signal are often small, and the signal can be early.
 
I considered adding to my trading positions, but the bearish outside reversal pattern was a worry so I decided to wait.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.