CPI ... Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

  

 

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
TRUMP CHAOS AND THE HYUNDAI RAID (WSJ)
“Incoherence, thy name is government. Example: The Obama administration’s Affordable Care Act produced insurance policies so unaffordable nobody will buy them without a large government subsidy to defray most of the cost. Or take Joe Biden. He declared climate change an existential risk and then piled on tariffs to make it more expensive for Americans to buy solar panels and electric vehicles to fight climate change.
In search of what is uniquely “Donald Trump” about the mass arrest of Korean engineers and managers at a Hyundai-LG factory site in Georgia, start with the fact that there’s nothing unique in the messy collision of his desire to increase foreign investment and his desire to curb illegal immigration... A good place to start the return to normality would be Democrats and Republicans exploiting the moment to coax Mr. Trump’s support of the bipartisan bill to strengthen the visa provisions in the U.S.-South Korea free trade deal.” - Holman W. Jenkins, Jr., Opinion Columnist, Business World, The Wall Street Journal. Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-chaos-and-the-hyundai-raid-8bd281b5?mod=opinion_recentauth_pos_2
 
CPI / JOBLESS CLAIMS (CNBC)
“Prices consumers pay for a variety of goods and services moved higher than expected in August while jobless claims accelerated, providing challenging economic signals for the Federal Reserve before its meeting next week.
The consumer price index posted a seasonally adjusted 0.4% increase for the month, the biggest gain since January, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.9%...For the vital core reading that excludes food and energy, the August gain was 0.3%, putting the 12-month figure at 3.1%...
... On employment, the Labor Department reported a surprise increase in weekly unemployment compensation filings to a seasonally adjusted 263,000 for the week ended Sept. 6...” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/11/consumer-prices-rose-at-annual-rate-of-2point9percent-in-august-as-weekly-jobless-claims-jump.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 6587.
-VIX declined about 4% to 14.71.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.026% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +7 to +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) and is now giving a Bullish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread is flat – a neutral sign.
 
There are a few top signals, but not enough to worry about. Bollinger Bands are overbought Thursday; RSI is not. I use these two indicators together.  If only one is overbought, I ignore it.
 
The Bollinger Band squeeze resolved two days ago. It appears that the S&P 500 is breaking out to the upside. There are concerns though.
 
The Buying-Pressure minus Selling Pressure indicator developed (I think) by Lowry Research remains neutral. I say, “I think” because I’ve never seen this indicator explained by Lowry Research.  The version I use is based on explanations of the indicator by others. The indicator is not confirming the current bullish action in the S&P 500 and that is a concern. It’s only one indicator, so I won’t act on it. Let’s see if this indicator improves.

There were good signs today.
 
On Thursday there was another new all-time high for the S&P 500. At all-time highs, I always check breadth on the NYSE. When we look at New, 52-week highs, we see that around 8.8% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs today.  That number is above the 5-year average of about 7%. That’s a good sign suggesting market breadth is good. Markets can go higher although some consolidation tomorrow would not be a surprise.  
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.