Trump Fires Prosecutor ... 1929 Again? ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.
 
PROMINENT NORFOLK PROSECUTOR FIRED (Mint)
“Senior federal prosecutor Elizabeth Yusi, who resisted President Donald Trump’s push to bring charges against New York Attorney General Letitia James, was fired. Yusi, who led major criminal cases in the Norfolk office of the US Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Virginia, was dismissed on Friday evening along with her deputy, Kristin Bird. The decision came after Yusi reportedly pushed back against Trump’s calls to indict James, telling colleagues there was no probable cause to support the charges... Other senior officials have also resigned or been dismissed under political pressure, including Maya Song, the former first assistant US attorney, and Michael Ben'Ary, who was a prosecutor in a national security unit, stated the NYT report....The office of the Justice Department did not share a response to Yusi's termination.” Story at...
https://www.livemint.com/us/trending/who-is-elizabeth-yusi-top-virginia-prosecutor-fired-for-resisting-trumps-push-to-target-letitia-james-11760807022017.html
My cmt: All this in the Eastern District of DOJ. Trump’s actions continue to be lawless, un-principled, and probably un-Constitutional. In the unlikely event that the Democrats were to regain their senses and run a moderate for President in 2028, Trump will pay a price.  
 
BLACKROCK ETF COULD SOAR (Motley Fool)
“Some of Wall Street's most successful hedge fund managers bought positions in the iShares Bitcoin Trust in the second quarter.
Several cryptocurrency experts believe Bitcoin prices will skyrocket in the future, but none more so than Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor.” Story at...
Billionaires Are Buying a BlackRock ETF That Could Soar Up to 9,400%, According to Wall Street Experts
"Cryptocurrencies basically have no value and they don't produce anything. They don't reproduce, they can't mail you a check, they can't do anything, and what you hope is that somebody else comes along and pays you more money for them later on, but then that person's got the problem. In terms of value: zero." - Warren Buffett, CNBC, February 2020
My cmt: I agree with Warren.  The time to buy Beanie Babies was in the beginning; not now.

IS THIS 1929 CRASH AROUND THE CORNER? (MarketWatch)
“...is this rally really reminiscent of 1928? In one way, for sure: The laws of physics create a nervous energy; the higher you rise, the further you fall. 
It seems imprudent, even impolite, not to advise caution, rather than mindlessly becoming part of the herd. With that in mind, it seemed apt to check in with Timothy Crack, an economist living in New Zealand, a country with more sheep than people. He describes the market as “another bullet point in the centuries-long list of paroxysmal bubbles in asset prices. ​​We all know that humans have an awful history of chasing stock prices so optimistically that they push them past sensible levels, given fundamentals like earnings and dividends. By historical standards, the S&P 500 has been out of line with historical fundamental ratios for a long time,” Crack told MarketWatch.
 
“We have slowly gotten to the point where housing prices, gold prices, bitcoin prices, S&P 500 levels and even grocery prices seem to have been inflated to levels that are continually grabbing the headlines,” Crack said. “My secretary and one colleague both asked me yesterday if they should buy physical gold; it will be my hairdresser next. Retail investors have wide access to online trading, commissions have fallen, ETFs keep popping up that allow you to take positions in assets that were previously difficult to access. A friend calls it the ‘everything bubble.’ ” Story at...
‘A friend calls it the everything bubble’: Why do so many economists fear a 1929-style crash?
The date of the crash was 28 October 1929. Markets fell about 50% in 2-weeks.
 
LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Conference Board)
Not released today. Maybe Tuesday.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 6735.
-VIX fell about 12% to 18.23.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 3.982% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -9 to -1 (1 more Bear indicator than Bull indicator), a Neutral indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remained down - a Bearsh sign - but as shown on the chart above, the 10-day average is not falling as fast. Perhaps we’ll see a reversal.
 
-The latest Outside Reversal Day signal has been canceled – today’s close was higher than the intra-day high on the day of the signal.
 
-The Hindenburg Omen signal is cancelled since the McClellan Oscillator turned positive.
 
-49.5% of issues trading on the NYSE have been up over the last 2-weeks, close, but still a bearish sign.
 
Following the indicators and price action, I’m Neutral.  I’ve been fully invested (50% in stocks) during this weakness.  As a retiree, I hold about 20% in cash that I invest tactically when I think risk is low – haven’t seen that in a while. That could change; we’ll see

As for a 1929 style crash, I've seen a few - Dot.com crash; 1987 Debacle; Financial/Housing Crash. There is another one coming, but we never really know when it will begin. I am reasonably certain my indicators will get me out before markets fall too far. I don't see a Crash now. Based on PE's, it is not too much of a stretch to think a crash could be only a year or so away.
 
BOTTOM LINE
Neutral.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.