“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“... President Trump did what not only President Biden couldn’t but what all the European leaders recently calling for “cease-fire” never tried. The 20-point plan achieves Israel’s goals of the war, protects Palestinian interests, offers hope for a future without Hamas and sets the conditions for lasting peace.
As I boarded my plane out of Tel Aviv on Oct. 10, pure joy was in the air. It permeated every space, billboard sign and hotel. Israelis weren’t celebrating vengeance. They were relishing the prospect of peace, security and the end of a nightmare.
I had spent several days in and around Gaza City, where I was talking to division, brigade and battalion commanders and their soldiers actively destroying Hamas. I had no idea that I may have been with them during the last day of major fighting in the war. They discussed how they succeeded in moving civilians out of harm’s way, removing Hamas’s main weapon. They described adapting to the thousands of IEDs Hamas had placed seemingly everywhere, and how their units had responded to the terror group’s new urban and guerrilla tactics. Most palpable was that they were optimistic the military pressure was working—not because they were intent on “genocide,” but because the thought of going home, with all the hostages returned, made them happy.
Now the “cease-fire now” crowds are silent. The commentators who rebuked Israel’s strategy, urged the nation to abandon its hostages and compromise its borders and declared it impossible to defeat Hamas were wrong. It took an act of force, strength and clarity of will, denying Hamas any hope of achieving its goals.
Of the thousands of reasons Israel wasn’t committing genocide or ethnic cleansing, this moment is proof enough. Israel is joyous over a deal that ends the war with no ethnic cleansing. Joy isn’t what you feel when your deepest ambitions have been thwarted. It is what you feel when your nation has survived, your hostages are home and your children can dream again. It turns out Israel’s goal was never destruction—it was peace.” - John Spencer, Urban Warfare Institute. From...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/what-i-saw-in-gaza-in-the-final-days-of-war-israel-war-hostages-006fe985?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos1
“Optimism among small business owners decreased in September. While most owners evaluate their own business as currently healthy, they are having to manage rising inflationary pressures, slower sales expectations, and ongoing labor market challenges. Although uncertainty is high, small business owners remain resilient as they seek to better understand how policy changes will impact their operations.... The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 3 points from August to a net 24% (seasonally adjusted). A net 31% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices over the next three months, up 5 points from August.” Report at...
https://www.nfib.com/news/monthly_report/sbet/
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 6640.
-VIX rose about 9% to 20.81.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.032% (compared to about this time prior market day).
SPY – Added 8/26/2025
XLK – Added 8/26/2025
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -10 to -6 (6 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), but remained a Bearish indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread smooths daily fluctuations; it remained down – a Bearsh sign.
We saw another Bearish Outside Reversal Day Tuesday.
“An outside reversal is a price pattern that indicates a potential change in trend on a price chart. The two-day pattern is observed when a security’s high and low prices for the day exceed the high and low of the previous day’s trading session... Technical analysts and experienced traders prefer to build trading signals using this identification in conjunction with other information such as trend, support and resistance or technical studies.” – Investopedia.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis indicator that attempts to predict stock market crashes by identifying periods of market instability. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, a German airship that caught fire in 1937. The omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short time frame.” – Investopedia.
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. I wouldn’t call 2 in 3 days a cluster.
I am Neutral / borderline Bearish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
