Friday, February 6, 2026

Sentiment from Univ Michigan … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
JUDGE TOSSES MAGA SUIT (Alternet)
“One week after President Donald Trump sent FBI agents to seize Fulton County’s 2020 ballots as part of a criminal probe, a Georgia judge has apparently had it up to here with Trump-style election deniers. “The 2020 election is over,” said Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney, dismissing Trump-supporters’ lawsuit and effort to review ballots and materials they allege would prove Trump should have won Georgia. On top of tossing the suit, the judge ordered the four plaintiffs — consisting of a treasure hunter and members of a Georgia affiliate of the Tea Party Patriots — to pay nearly $40,000 to Fulton County and the county Superior Court clerk’s office for filing the frivolous suit.” Story at…
My cmt: Trump continues his “stolen election” lies. Some of my thoughts are here…
TRUMP STILL CLAIMS MAIL-IN VOTING COST HIM THE 2020 ELECTION
 
Then there’s 2000 Mules movie.
APOLOGY FOR ‘2000 MULES (WSJ)
“The movie “2000 Mules” was supposed to be the definitive proof that Democrats stole the 2020 election from President Trump. Last week [June 2024] it was quietly retracted. Salem Media Group, which co-produced this Trumpian fantasy mockumentary, ceased distribution of the film and issued an apology to Mark Andrews, one of the Georgia voters depicted as an illegal ballot “mule.”... Salem aims to shift blame to the film’s purported vote-fraud-fighting heroes. “We relied on representations made to us by Dinesh D’Souza and True the Vote, Inc. (‘TTV’) that the individuals depicted in the videos provided to us by TTV, including Mr. Andrews, illegally deposited ballots,” the company said. “We have learned that the Georgia Bureau of Investigation has cleared Mr. Andrews of illegal voting activity in connection with the event depicted.” – WSJ Editorial staff at...
My cmt: The movie is a complete fake. Here are a couple of my previous comments on the subject...
 
“A conservative group has told a Georgia judge that it doesn't have evidence to support its claims of illegal ballot stuffing during the 2020 general election and a runoff two months later. Texas-based True the Vote filed complaints with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger in 2021, including one in which it said it had obtained “a detailed account of coordinated efforts to collect and deposit ballots in drop boxes across metro Atlanta” during the November 2020 election and a January 2021 runoff.” Story at...
My cmt: The movie, “2000 Mules” is a complete fake.  The GBI (Georgia Bureau of Investigation) stated that the claims of ballot stuffing by True the Vote and the 2000 Mules movie were not supported by the evidence provided in the movie. The crazy thing is that during the 2020 election, Georgia matched absentee ballot signatures to registrations and signatures on file.  Even if there had been ballot stuffing, the fake ballots would have been thrown out due to lack of registration and/or non-matching signatures.
 
“About one-third of U.S. adults say they believe President Biden was not legitimately elected president of the United States in 2020, according a poll released this week [Jan 2024].” - The Hill at...
My cmt: 20% of Americans are complete idiots for believing there is a Government/Taylor Swift conspiracy to elect Joe Biden. Now 30% believe the Trump stolen election absurdity. Let’s hope the 20% crazies fall within the 30% nut-jobs otherwise we’d have to add them together.  50% of Americans can’t be idiots, can they?
 
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that."- George Carlin
 
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Univ Michigan)
“Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged, inching up less than one index point from last month and sitting about 20% below January 2025. Sentiment surged for consumers with the largest stock portfolios, while it stagnated and remained at dismal levels for consumers without stock holdings. On net, modest increases in current personal finances and buying conditions for durables were offset by a small decline in long-run business conditions. While sentiment is currently the highest since August 2025, recent monthly increases have been small—well under the margin of error—and the overall level of sentiment remains very low from a historical perspective.” Report at…
 
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 2% to 6932.
-VIX fell about 18% to 17.76.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.206% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -7 to +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
The S&P 500 bounced above its 50-dMA and the lower trend line of the bearish wedge - good news. No trend-change yet.
 
The Hindenburg Omen was canceled today because the McClellan Oscillator turned positive.
 
The S&P 500 closed at its 100-dMA yesterday. As noted yesterday, recent declines have stopped at the 100-dMA – boy, did it ever.  
 
Breadth improved.
 
Friday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time.
 
Looks like the weakness ended as dip-buyers stampeded into the market. Let’s see what the indicators show next week.
 
I added to my Nvidia position today. The high capital expenditures by tech companies suggests to ne that the AI trade is far from over. Nvidia looks like a value trade to me so I am ignoring the weak momentum it is currently exhibiting.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
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