Sunday, May 3, 2026

Manufacturing … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
Here's the post for Friday, 1 May. 

 

ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM)
"In April, U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory, growing at the same pace as the month before. Of the five subindexes that make up the PMI®, the New Orders and Supplier Deliveries indexes indicated faster growth compared to the previous month, the Production Index grew at a slower rate, and the Employment and Inventories indexes remained in contraction...
In this second month of the Iran War (at the time of data collection), 31 percent of the comments were positive and 69 percent negative, with a positive to negative sentiment ratio of 1 to 2.2. Among comments, the war was mentioned in 47 percent and tariffs in 18 percent. As was the case last month, some panelists referenced both topics within a single comment or in mixed sentiment.
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 7230.
-VIX rose about 0.6% to 16.99. (The Options Players aren’t convinced that Fridays should have been an p day.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.372% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +10 to +5 (5 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations remained down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
The S&P 500 made a new high today (Friday). 169 issues on the NYSE made a new-high today; that is below the 5-year average, but still reasonably high. That’s one measure that shows breadth is ok so we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime soon
 
Divergence between the indicators and the S&P 500 in the above chart remains; the 10-day spread had narrowed Thursday, but steepened Friday. For now, the possibility of a bullish, indicator-reversal has lessened. 
 
It’s still possible that the markets will retrace about half of their gains. That would imply a 5-7% drop from the recent high, but there is no signal yet that a retreat is in the cards.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish.
  

 

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