Jobless Claims … ISM Manufacturing … Construction Spending … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (PBS)
“The number of people applying for U.S. unemployment benefits dipped last week to the lowest level since mid-July as layoffs remain low and most American workers enjoy job security.
The Labor Department said Thursday that initial jobless claims ticked down to 197,000 from a revised 198,000 the week before. “ Story at…
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-unemployment-claims-dip-to-the-lowest-since-mid-july
 
ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in September for the ninth consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report…“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 54.5 percent in September, 0.1 percentage point below the August figure of 54.6 percent. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 23rd month in a row. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 47.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.)” Report at…
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/september/
 
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (Reuters)
“US construction spending unexpectedly surged in August, boosted by outlays on nonresidential structures like offices and power ​plants, but the trend remained weak as higher mortgage ‌rates weighed on homebuilding. The Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Thursday that construction spending jumped 0.9% after an upwardly revised 0.1% dip in July.” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-construction-spending-surges-august-2026-10-01/
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 7666.
-VIX rose about 0.3% to 16.39.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 5.247% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 21 gave Bear-signs and 3 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -14 to -18 (18 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed lower a BEARISH sign.
 
Seems like the indicators were here not long ago. We can see in the 50 Indicator Spread chart above that the daily spread (red) is almost as low as it was on 10 September. Then, as now, conditions are set for a correction; but that doesn’t mean a correction is guaranteed. It isn’t; indicators are showing weakness, but Price is still hanging in there. As long as the S&P 500 shows strength, I am in wait and see mode. The S&P 500 is still above its 50-dMA and its lower trendline.
 
I heard Josh Brown on CNBC's midday show pointing out that 5% bonds are a good deal. He also suggested that investors might consider taking money off the table. One of the pundits recommended the 10-year bond as a “Final Trade.” I think that may be the first time I’ve seen that. But it does point out another headwind for the market and I think that was Josh Brown’s point. Years ago, I used to watch the CNBC “Fast Money” show. If all of the experts were recommending an action, for example “sell,” it usually marked a good time to buy.

 
I am watching indicators and market action to see if I will lighten up on stocks… or buy more. 
 
Breadth remains weak whether measured by advancing issues or new-highs.
 
As previously noted, only 7 days have been up in the last month and that is an oversold signal. The 5-day, Ultra-Short-term, Fosback Hi/Lo Logic Indicator continues to signal “Buy,” a probable bottom signal.  But it is only one bottom indicator that is bullish.  Others have not yet signaled “BUY” and they may not since there hasn’t been much of a bottom yet. I’ll wait for more bullish signs before adding to stock holdings.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish, but a drop below the 50-dMA could change that.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.