“The initial claims level increased to 326,000 for the week ending March 29 from…310,000…for the week ending March 22…We would not be surprised, given the strength of the claims data in March, if payrolls top 200,000 for the first time since November 2013.” Story at…
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/claims.htm
ISM SERVICES (Reuters)
"Growth in the U.S. services sector accelerated in March, an industry report showed on Thursday, though the pace of employment slackened for a third straight month to its slowest in a year…"Hiring remained disappointingly subdued, suggesting firms are reluctant to expand capacity until they see firm evidence of stronger demand feeding through to their businesses," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.” Story at…http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/03/us-usa-economy-pmi-markit-idUSBREA3215J20140403
"Growth in the U.S. services sector accelerated in March, an industry report showed on Thursday, though the pace of employment slackened for a third straight month to its slowest in a year…"Hiring remained disappointingly subdued, suggesting firms are reluctant to expand capacity until they see firm evidence of stronger demand feeding through to their businesses," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.” Story at…http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/03/us-usa-economy-pmi-markit-idUSBREA3215J20140403
CHINA SEES SHARPEST CONTRACTION
OF OUTPUT SINCE NOV 2011; JAPAN RETURNS TO GROWTH BUT BUSINESS SENTIMENT
COLLAPSES (Mish Shedlock, Global Advisor perspectives)
This is not good news for the US markets. The headline says it all so I’ll just link the article here:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/This is not good news for the US markets. The headline says it all so I’ll just link the article here:
30% CORRECTION ALMOST HERE
(CNBC)
"Jakobsen, the chief economist and chief investment officer at Saxo Bank, warned the index was just points away from the key 1,900 level, which could herald a 30 percent correction. This would see the S&P tumble to 1,330.” Story and video at…
"Jakobsen, the chief economist and chief investment officer at Saxo Bank, warned the index was just points away from the key 1,900 level, which could herald a 30 percent correction. This would see the S&P tumble to 1,330.” Story and video at…
RON INSANA: STILL A SHORT-TERM
BEAR: A BIG SHORT PART DEUX (CNBC)
“I took some heat for saying that stocks are long overdue for a correction
that could drive the market down by between 10 and 20 percent. While I have to
acknowledge that, in the short term, that seems like a bit of a blunder, given
the new intraday highs in the S&P 500,
the transports and other major averages, I'm not sure it is prudent to back
away from that call... the alternative to a full-blown correction is more of
this rotational selling we've seen. The leaders have been taken out and shot,
while the laggards are being bought. Not my kind of game, but one that might
have to be played regardless of your point of view.” - Ron Insana.
I must say he didn’t make a
very good argument for a pullback now.
For my part, I am watching the market internals.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101547404
DISECTING THE DOW (Advisor
Perspectives)
“I use my Cycle Analysis and Forecasting Methodology
along with the 30 Dow Industrial Component Companies and their respective
Industry Groups…In my opinion, the fundamentals are over-valued, the technicals
are over-bought, and the consensus opinion is way too bullish…I am currently
turning Bearish because my Fundamental Valuations have been deteriorating for
quite some time, and my Technical Indicators are breaking down weekly. It's
just that simple!” - Steven Bauer,
Ph.D., posted at Doug Shorts website.
Full story at…
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Steven-Bauer-140403-Dow-Five-MCD-MMM-MRK-MSFT-NKE.phpMr. Bauer presented a chart that showed in the last 2-months 4-more Dow companies have turned bearish bringing the total to 9-Dow companies he rates as bearish. In August 2013 there was only 1-bearish company.
MARKET REPORT
Thursday, the S&P 500 was about 0.1% to 1889 (rounded).
VIX was up about 2% to 13.37.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note moved down
slightly to 2.79%.
I still see people trying to short the markets on the
day-trader boards. Maybe they are making
money if they are really good. I wouldn’t
short unless the internals are at least neutral. I can’t bet against the internals when they
are positive and they pointing to more gains. On the other hand, the Index is near
the top of the channel trend line so it may reverse in the relative near
future.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of stocks advancing on the NYSE
dropped to 56% at the close. (A number above
50% for the 10-day average is generally good news for the market.) New-highs outpaced new-lows Thursday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows was +142. (It was +177 Wednesday). The 10-day moving
average of change in the spread was +8. In
other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by 8 each
day. The smoothed 10-dMA of up-volume continued up today. The internals are positive.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2013, using these internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting). Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
Final volume showed that the NTSM analytical model remained
HOLD Thursday. The VIX has been falling
and remains positive. Price, Volume and Sentiment are neutral. Sentiment is still screaming high at 78%-bulls,
but this is now below the statistical level or multiple of standard deviations
that was prevalent at the 2009 bottom. The
sell point for the sentiment indicator is 79%.
That’s only one indicator so it won’t affect the overall NTSM analysis
unless other indicators also switch.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I increased my stock allocation to 50% invested in stocks on 26 March because of the NTSM indicators turned positive Monday (24 Mar) at the close. Further the 5-10-20 Timer was positive along with market internals on 26 March as they are today, 28 March. 50% is fully invested for me at this time.
I increased my stock allocation to 50% invested in stocks on 26 March because of the NTSM indicators turned positive Monday (24 Mar) at the close. Further the 5-10-20 Timer was positive along with market internals on 26 March as they are today, 28 March. 50% is fully invested for me at this time.
