NFIB Business Optimism … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
NFIB BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dipped in August to 98.7, just 1.1 points below July’s highest level since August 2025, but remaining above the 52-year average of 98.0…“Uncertainty remains elevated among small business owners as they face a mixed set of challenges with weakened sales, supply chain disruptions, and inflation pressures,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “While expectations for the overall economy dimmed, Main Street owners remain largely positive in the health of their own businesses.” Report at…
https://www.nfib.com/news/monthly_report/sbet/
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 7674.
-VIX rose about 8% to 15.72.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.80% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -4 to -5 (5 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher, a BULLISH sign.
 
The S&P 500 has been in a sideways correction since early August and it is only up about 1% since 2 June. It is normal for this sort of market malaise to last 2 to 3 months. Indicators aren’t particularly bad, but Breadth has been slipping and as of today, less than half of the issues on the NYSE have been up over the last 2-1/2 months. If we see breadth remain poor, we will get concerned that markets may slip into a real correction. So far, I am not seeing enough signs to draw that conclusion even though some of the bear signs are worrisome.
 
Hindenburg Omens are still hanging around. We saw one three days ago. And that was the seventh I the last 3 weeks. Clusters of Omens are usually giving a valid signal.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain neutral, but concerned.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.