Consumer Price Index … Retail Sales … Crude Inventories … Trump Budget … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (MarketWatch)

“The consumer-price index leaped 0.5% in January to mark the biggest increase in five months, adding to recent worries about rising inflation. The cost of rent, clothes, gasoline, health care and auto insurance all rose.” Story at…

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cpi-surges-05-in-january-but-yearly-rate-of-inflation-unchanged-2018-02-14

 

RETAIL SALES (Reuters)

“U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell in January, recording their biggest drop in nearly a year, as households cut back on purchases of motor vehicles and building materials. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that retail sales decreased 0.3 percent last month…” Story at…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-retail/u-s-retail-sales-post-biggest-decline-in-11-months-idUSKCN1FY1X8

 

CRUDE INVENTORY (OilPrice.com)

“After reporting two consecutive weekly crude oil inventory builds, this week the EIA continued with another build, of 1.8 million barrels for the week to February 9."

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Prices-Recover-After-Small-Crude-Inventory-Build.html

 

TRUMP BUDGET (Financial Sense)

“President Trump released his first budget proposal yesterday. At first glance, it looks pretty ugly where the concept of fiscal responsibility is concerned… Assuming the future plays out as he proposes, President Trump’s tenure in office would appear set to add the second-most amount of debt to the nation’s total public debt outstanding of any US President, following only Barack Obama’s dubious achievement.”

https://www.financialsense.com/independent-institute/ugly-budget-proposal

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Wednesday the S&P 500 was up about 1.3% to 2699.

-VIX was down about 23% to 19.26.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.922%.

 

The S&P 500 is down 6.1% from its recent high; this is day 14 in the correction. If the bottom was 8 Feb, then this “correction” lasted 10-days top to bottom.  A 2-week correction is awfully short and difficult to believe.

 

My sum of 17 Indicators deteriorated from -2 to -4 today. (A “-” number means that most indicators are bearish.) The 10-day versions of this indicator (designed to avoid the daily fluctuation) was flat – a neutral indication. The smoothed version is still headed down.

 

Changes from yesterday’s indicators are more bearish than not and I won’t list them all here. But some key ones:

-New-high/new-low data turned down and is now negative on the market.

-Money Trend is still falling; it didn’t turn up as I guessed it might yesterday so this indicator is still bearish.

 

The S&P 500 is in a zone that is critical. If the Index can move higher for another day or two and new-highs can outpace new-lows, a “V” correction is likely with the Index making a quick recovery near the prior highs is likely. If not, the bounce may be over and the correction may look more like the typical correction that includes a lot of choppiness after the bounce and a retest of the recent low. We’ll see.

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

In corrections this chart may be less valuable – all stocks are falling.

 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

In corrections this chart may be less valuable – all stocks are falling.

 

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained Neutral on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

 

LONG TERM INDICATOR                                                        

Wednesday, Sentiment, Volume and VIX Indicators were negative; Price remained neutral.

 

MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:

TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION

I remain 40% invested in stocks and 60% in cash as of 31 Jan or 50% in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) with the remainder 50% G-Fund (Government securities). For none Government employees holding short-term bonds would be OK rather than 60% cash.

Small Business Optimism … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM (Washington Post)

“Optimism among small companies in the U.S. rose more than forecast in January, fueled by a record number of owners who said now was a good time to expand, according to a National Federation of Independent Business survey released Tuesday…Six of the 10 components that make up the small-business optimism index increased in January, producing one of the strongest readings in the 45-year history of the survey.” Story at…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/on-small-business/us-small-business-optimism-jumps-more-see-good-time-to-expand/2018/02/13/bf40488c-10b3-11e8-a68c-e9374188170e_story.html?utm_term=.bee17c41628c

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Tuesday the S&P 500 was up about 0.3% to 2663.

-VIX was down about 3% to 24.97.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.829%.

 

The S&P 500 is down 7.3% from its recent high; this is day 13 in the correction. If the bottom was 8 Feb, then this “correction” lasted 10-days top to bottom.  A 2-week correction is awfully short and difficult to believe.

 

My sum of 17 Indicators improved from -8 to -2 today. (A “-” number means that most indicators are bearish.) The 10-day versions of this indicator (designed to avoid the daily fluctuation) turned up and that’s a bullish sign.  

 

BULL SIGNS

-New-high/new-low data is finally bullish and signaled a buy for this one indicator. (This is a good indicator.)

-Advancing-volume has been improving since the day before the 8 Feb low and improved today as well.

-The 10-dMA of Closing Tick is -132. A negative print is believed by some to be in the zone where bottoms are formed.

-RSI remains very close to a buy signal. It was a buy on the 8^th and 9^th of Feb.

-My long-term indicator improved to Hold.

 

NEUTRAL SIGNS

-Money Trend is still falling, but it is now looking like a turn to the upside is imminent and that would be bullish. (This indicator attempts to follow the general concept of Lowry Research and their supply and demand methodology for stock market analysis. Their concept is based on a detailed stock-by-stock analysis while mine is an estimate based on readily available Macro data.  Theirs is much more accurate, but that doesn’t mean mine isn’t useful.) It is most useful when it turns up after a market decline to confirm the up-move or suggest an impending up turn.

 

BEAR SIGNS

-Sentiment is still at very high levels, but it a bit less bullish, now at 81%-Bulls on the day.

-Only 44% of stocks on the NYSE have advanced over the last 10-days.

-Late day action is down over the last month and still suggests the Pros are cautious.

-The S&P 500 is still too far ahead of Market Internals.

-If the correction has bottomed already (on 8 Feb) then it was only 10-days long. The average is 53-days.

 

We didn’t see the strong up-day Tuesday with high up-volume, to convincingly determine the correction is over based on an established indicator. My new-high/new-low analysis does suggest this correction is over. It bothers me though. There have been many causes blamed for the start of the downturn: rising interest rates; inflation fears; FED unwinding of QE (causing rising interest rates); FED hiking of the Federal Funds Rate; dollar weakening, bullish sentiment; overvaluation (the median PE is higher than during the dot.com era); you name it. None of those issues have gone away. It seems to me that it should take more than 10-days to wash away those fears.    

 

Let’s see if there is a retest of the recent low – then we should have a better idea where this market is going. It will probably go higher first.

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

In corrections this chart may be less valuable – all stocks are falling.

 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

In corrections this chart may be less valuable – all stocks are falling.

 

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained Neutral on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

 

LONG TERM INDICATOR                                                        

Tuesday, Sentiment, Volume and VIX Indicators were negative; Price remained neutral; New-High/New-low data is positive.

 

MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:

TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION

I remain 40% invested in stocks and 60% in cash as of 31 Jan or 50% in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) with the remainder 50% G-Fund (Government securities). For none Government employees holding short-term bonds would be OK rather than 60% cash.

Correction Over? x3 … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

CORRECTION OVER (Raymond James)

“…the bottoming process was picture perfect. We called the downturn, last Tuesday’s selling climax [mid-day], the subsequent failed throwback rally [Wednesday], and Friday’s undercut low (the print low below last Tuesday’s selling climax low). Indeed, “picture perfect!” Our energy models are calling for an upside energy whoosh this week, so we think the selling stampede is over!” – Jeffrey Saut. Commentary at…

https://www.raymondjames.com/wealth-management/market-commentary-and-insights/investment-strategy

 

CORRECTION OVER? – MAYBE, MAYBE NOT (Financial Sense)

“I want to highlight again my belief that this market selloff is all about rising interest rates and a slowing flow of liquidity from the Fed, ECB, and BoJ. Yes, the global economy is good and earnings have been solid but for at least right now, this is a P/E multiple reassessments as the positive fundamentals have been FULLY priced in and then some…I hear all the time, a bear market can't happen until we get a recession which for most of the history of the US stock market that was true. But, the last two recessions were caused by falling asset prices and the next one we get, whenever that might happen, will be driven by rising interest rates, a fall in stocks and a subsequent drop in consumer spending and investment.” Peter Boockvar. Commentary at…

https://www.financialsense.com/peter-boockvar/what-next

 

RISK/REWARD BIASED TO THE UP-SIDE (Financial Sense)

“So what happens next? Prior falls like this have led to quick recoveries. That likelihood is further supported by a washout in breadth, volatility and several measures of sentiment. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop remains excellent. Risk/reward is heavily biased towards upside in the near term. That said, strong down momentum normally reverberates into the weeks ahead. Equities sometimes "V bounce" but more often form a double bottom. A low retest in the not too distant future remains a greater than 50% probability. The longer-term outlook for US equities is unchanged and favorable.” – Urban Carmel. Commentary at…

https://www.financialsense.com/urban-carmel/riskreward-heavily-biased-towards-near-term-upside

 

SENTIMENT

On a 5-day basis, %-Bulls was 89%-Bulls Friday. That’s a slight drop from the recent high of 91%-Bulls, but it still remains at levels seen during the dot.com collapse. It still surprises me that there is so much bullishness. As I’ve said for a while, this suggests the S&P 500 will make a new low at some point before the correction ends. Strong bullishness in this indicator is a bearish sign.

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Monday the S&P 500 was up about 1.4% to 2656.

-VIX was down about 12% to 25.61.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.859%.

 

Recently, I have provided some stats on corrections since 2009. I noticed the WSJ gave stats that showed only 4-corrections since 2009 while I stated there were 8.  I used a 7% drop as my correction number while the Journal used the more traditional 10-days to define a correction.

 

As for this one, there were positive signs today especially up-volume that was very positive.  It just isn’t positive enough for me to call an all clear. Further, New-high/new-low data remains stubbornly negative, but that could change if the bullish move continues. I like Jeffery Saut’s analysis in the above “Correction Over” article, but his discussion of the mid-day selling climax is not a methodology I have been able to use. It’s tough enough to call an end to a correction using closing data – calling an end to a correction mid-day is not in my analysis tool-box. In addition, I’ve not seen a correction where the new-high/new-low data didn’t confirm the end of the correction and so far, it has not. If I can get a confirmation based on closing data, I’ll post it.

 

One other thing that bothers me about the mid-day analysis: the bounce from the 200-dMA was almost certainly a product of computer driven buying. I’d like to be sure that humans follow-thru.

 

My sum of 17 Indicators was again unchanged at -8 today. (A “-” number means that most indicators are bearish.) Smoothed versions of this indicator (designed to avoid the daily fluctuation) show that the sum of indicators remains sharply bearish.

 

The S&P 500 was down 7.5% from its recent high; this is day-12 in the correction.

 

Bottom line: It still looks like we’ve got a ways to go but, there is a possibility this could be the “V” bottom that the Bulls dream about. I remain somewhat skeptical, but if we have another strong up-day Tuesday with high up-volume, I think we can say the correction is over for the time being.

 

Longer term I am bullish.

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

In corrections this chart may be less valuable – all stocks are falling.

 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

In corrections this chart may be less valuable – all stocks are falling.

 

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained Neutral on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

 

LONG TERM INDICATOR                                                        

Monday, Sentiment, Volume and VIX Indicators were negative; Price remained neutral. My system is designed to call tops and bottoms, but I don’t know how far the market may fall once we have a sell-signal. While the model currently says sell; that may not be the best move since we are already down significantly from the top.

 

 

MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:

TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION

I shifted to a conservative 40% invested in stocks and 60% in cash on 31 Jan. For the TSP, that would be 40% in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) with the remainder 60% G-Fund (Government securities) on 31 Jan.

China in Trouble … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

EVERYTHING IS A SELL IN CHINA (MSN)

“Investors got a stark reminder of how fast their bets can turn in China, where the most bullish trades are falling apart. The country’s currency was their latest favorite to succumb to a rout that has roiled financial markets around the world this week, losing as much as 1.2 percent on Thursday for the biggest decline since the aftermath of its 2015 shock devaluation. That follows a selloff in large caps and banks that has wiped out about $660 billion from the value of Chinese equities.” Story at…

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/everything-is-a-sell-in-china-after-dollar660-billion-equity-wipeout/ar-BBIQykY?ocid=spartandhp

 

SENTIMENT

I’ve been watching my sentiment indicator, the 5-dMA of %-Bulls.  On a day-to-day basis Sentiment has been dropping slightly, but on a 5-day basis, there’s not much difference from the start of the correction. The 5-dMA of %-Bulls was 91%-Bulls 3-days ago. Thursday the value was 89% - still at extreme levels. This is a sign that today’s jump higher is not likely to be the end of the correction.

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Friday the S&P 500 was up about 1.5% to 2620.

-VIX was down about 13% to 29.06.

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.856%.

 

My sum of 17 Indicators was unchanged at -8 today. (A “-” number means that most indicators are bearish.) Smoothed versions of this indicator (designed to avoid the daily fluctuation) show that the sum of indicators remains sharply bearish.

 

Today’s overall volume was the 2^nd highest of any of the days in the downturn so far. Since it was on an up-day, it is a somewhat bullish sign.  I say “somewhat,” because up-volume was not high enough to suggest the down-trend has stopped. This looks like a bounce to me. A bounce to around 2650 is possible.

 

The S&P 500 dropped to its 200-dMA (2539) around 1:30 Friday and popped up from there.  We don’t yet know if the test will hold.  As I’ve noted before, we need to see volume drop as the Index falls. While it’s clear that we had some reflexive buying today, it is not at all clear that selling pressure has been reduced much.  The “average” of 8-corrections since 2009 (excluding the 2009 crash) has lasted about 50-trading days and bottomed with a 12% loss, top to bottom. The shortest was 20-trading days long; the longest was 108. Friday was day 11 of this correction; the Index is down 8.8% as of today.

 

Bottom line: It still looks like we’ve got a way to go, but, there is a possibility this could be the “V” bottom that the Bulls dream about. As for me, I‘ll bet on history.

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

In corrections this chart may be less valuable – all stocks are falling.

 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

In corrections this chart may be less valuable – all stocks are falling.

 

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained Neutral on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

 

LONG TERM INDICATOR                                                        

Friday, Sentiment, Volume and VIX Indicators were negative; Price remained neutral. My system is designed to call tops and bottoms, but I don’t know how far the market may fall once we have a sell-signal. While the model currently says sell; that may not be the best move since we are already down 10%.

 

MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:

TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION

I shifted to a conservative 40% invested in stocks and 60% in cash on 31 Jan. For the TSP, that would be 40% in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) with the remainder 60% G-Fund (Government securities) on 31 Jan.

Jobless Claims … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)

“The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, dropping to its lowest level in nearly 45 years as the labor market tightened further, bolstering expectations of faster wage growth this year…Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 221,000 for the week ended Feb. 3…” Story at…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-jobless-claims-drop-to-near-45-year-low-idUSKBN1FS23K

 

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         

-Thursday the S&P 500 dropped 3.75% to 2581.

-VIX jumped about 21% to 33.46. (XIV has blown up and should not be traded; it fell another 20% to 5.1. That’s down 95% in less than 5-days. Some trade huh?)

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at a high 2.826%.

 

- My sum of 17 Indicators improved from -10 to -8 today. (A “-” number means that most indicators are bearish.) It’s good to see some improvement, but smoothed versions of this indicator (designed to avoid the daily fluctuation) indicate that the sum of indicators remains sharply bearish. But really, the indicators are not that important at this point.

 

Now we need to observe the data as the Index falls and watch especially for falling volume. Currently, volume is actually increasing as the Index has declined suggesting that investors remain concerned and selling is increasing. Until we see less volume, selling is likely to continue.

 

We can’t say how much further the S&P 500 may fall, but there will probably be a retest of today’s low of 2581 before this correction ends. There is still a lot of fear. I suggested early on that a test of the 200-dMA seemed likely.  The Index is now only 1.7% above the 200-day. Perhaps the Index will hold around 2540 (the 200-day). We’ll see. The “average” of 8-corrections since 2009 (excluding the 2009 crash) has lasted about 50-trading days and bottomed with a 12% loss, top to bottom. The shortest was 20-trading days long; the longest was 108. Thursday was day-10; Thursday the S&P 500 was down 10.2% from the top.

 

I am bearish short-term…isn’t everybody? Well, "No." So far, there still aren't too many bears. We need to see more bears before we'll know we getting closer to a bottom.

 

Longer term, my long-term indicator remained negative, but since I have already dropped stock holdings to 40% I am not planning to make further changes now. If the market recovers while Indicators remain negative, I’ll be a seller again. (The longer-term indicator is probably not as long term as we might like.  It calls a top, but it probably doesn’t differentiate between corrections and bear markets. For now, I’d need to see the 150-dMA in Breadth (%-advancing stocks on the NYSE) fall below 50% before I’d be concerned that a crash is in the works. Another high-volume day would be a worry too. For now, I don’t think we are facing a full-blown bear market, but that is mostly a guess.

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

In corrections this chart may be less valuable – all stocks are falling.

 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…

http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

 

TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

In corrections this chart may be less valuable – all stocks are falling.

 

The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.

*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…

https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

 

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals remained Neutral on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 

 

LONG TERM INDICATOR                                                        

Thursday, Sentiment, Volume and VIX Indicators were negative; Price remained neutral. My system is designed to call tops and bottoms, but I don’t know how far the market may fall once we  have a sell-signal. While the model currently says sell; that may not be the best move since we are already down 10%.

  

MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:

TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION

I shifted to a conservative 40% invested in stocks and 60% in cash on 31 Jan. For the TSP, that would be 40% in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) with the remainder 60% G-Fund (Government securities) on 31 Jan.