Friday, May 9, 2025

Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"For me, it's pretty clear. You have Trump who's locked in on tariffs. You have the Fed who's locked in on not cutting rates. That's not good for the stock market...We'll probably go down to new lows, even when Trump dials back China to 50%." – Paul Tudor Jones, Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager.
 
TARIFF TURMOIL ISN’T OVER (Barrons)
“A month out from President Donald Trump’s decision to ease up on the tariff throttle, something still isn’t quite right in the financial markets. Stock investors should be wary.
Corporate spreads have narrowed, and Treasury yields are less volatile, soothed by positive talk on tariffs. Stocks have recovered from their April 2 “Liberation Day” losses, but the dollar remains under pressure... President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that the U.K. was the first trading partner to agree to a new deal. Although the country has a trade surplus with the U.S., it agreed to a 10% minimum tariff on most exports.
“There’s a clear fragility here, because tariffs aren’t going back to zero,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. The U.K. deal indicates that 10% is the new minimum for tariffs, “which is a much higher tariff rate than we had before April 2...” Mikkelsen [Hans Mikkelsen, head of U.S. credit strategy at TD Securities] said... “It can’t be just 10% tariffs because that is not going to drive a lot of companies to set up in the U.S. I think the markets are probably on average expecting 10%, which is one of the reasons I think this is the calm before the storm.”
The Stock Market Is Getting a Warning from Bonds and the Dollar. Tariff Turmoil Isn’t Over.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% to 5660.
-VIX declined about 3% to 21.9.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.382% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK-added 4/28
SPY-added 4/28
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, only 4 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators slipped to +14 (14 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) a Bullish indication (I consider 5 neutral) - the 10-dMA of the spread continued higher – also a bullish sign. 
 
After an initial bounce, stocks meandered around. Maybe they were waiting for tariff news? What they don’t seem to grasp is that it’s going to be a long wait.
 
Friday, unchanged-volume was again extremely high. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? There aren’t many indicators that suggest it. RSI is overbought; my Money Trend indicator suggests a reversal, but how much of a reversal remains questionable. It would take more bear indicators to convince me the rally is over.
 
The advance has been narrow – only 50 issues made new, 52-week highs on the NYSE today.  Seems narrow to me, but that’s about the same as it was a month after the 25% bottom in October of 2022.
 
My Breadth indicators look good and the 50-indicator spread is suggesting the rally continues.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, though perhaps warily. The markets may trade sideways for a while or drift down some to work off the bullish froth.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD.
(My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 

 
My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Thursday, May 8, 2025

Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"For me, it's pretty clear. You have Trump who's locked in on tariffs. You have the Fed who's locked in on not cutting rates. That's not good for the stock market...We'll probably go down to new lows, even when Trump dials back China to 50%." – Paul Tudor Jones, Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager.
 
STOCKS PRICE IN TRADE VICTORY (Market Insider)
“More than a month has passed since President Donald Trump's tariffs sparked chaos in financial markets, and there's been no news of a trade deal. But markets are acting like the trade war may already be won, and investors may be getting overly optimistic, market pros say... investors need to tread carefully when it comes to baking in assumptions about trade policy, market experts told Business Insider.
"No way you're going to make a deal in a couple of weeks. Now, maybe they'll come up with some sort of framework for negotiation that could one day lead to a deal, and maybe Trump will, being the master marketer, claim some sort of victory if they achieve that. But actual trade deals? No, I don't think that's very likely," Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, said.” Story at...
Market pros say stocks are already pricing in a US trade war victory — even without news of any deals
 
TRADE DEAL WITH BRITAIN (NBC NEWS)
“The U.S. is working toward finalizing a narrow trade deal with the United Kingdom, President Donald Trump said Thursday, a small step as the White House pursues an aggressive tariff agenda across the globe.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-says-major-trade-deal-will-discussed-white-house-event-thursday-rcna205509
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 228,000 for the week ended May 3. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week. The decline unwound some of the boost from school spring breaks in New York state, which had lifted claims to a two-month high... Economists say it is only a matter of time before the weakness in business and consumer surveys spills over to so-called hard data like claims, inflation and employment reports.” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-more-than-expected-2025-05-08/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 5664.
-VIX declined about 5% to 22.48.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.371% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK-added 4/28
SPY-added 4/28
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, only 2 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT

The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to +15 (15 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) a very Bullish indication (I consider 5 neutral) - the 10-dMA of the spread continued higher – also a bullish sign. 
 
As markets rocketed higher in the morning, I thought it might signal a blow-off top of some kind.  Maybe traders came to the same conclusion, because markets sold off in the afternoon and any signs of a blow-off top disappeared.
 
Thursday, unchanged-volume was extremely high. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen. The indicators are extremely bullish – from lofty heights the only way forward is down. Still, it’s hard to assess the condition when indicators are too bullish. Perhaps, the best we can say is that investors are confused. “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong. If the 10-dMA of the 50-indicaotr spread turns down, I might be willing to say that markets are likely to retreat.
 
All of my Breadth indicators look good and the 50-indicator spread is suggesting the rally continues.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, though perhaps warily. The markets may trade sideways for a while or drift down some to work off the bullish froth.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD.
(My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Wednesday, May 7, 2025

FED Rate Decision ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

Political commentary by Michael Ramirez at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"For me, it's pretty clear. You have Trump who's locked in on tariffs. You have the Fed who's locked in on not cutting rates. That's not good for the stock market...We'll probably go down to new lows, even when Trump dials back China to 50%." – Paul Tudor Jones, Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager.
 
CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2 million barrels from the previous week. At 438.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 7% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
WHY CALIFORNIA GAS COSTS MORE (EIA)
“Retail prices for regular grade gasoline in California are consistently higher than in any other state in the continental United States, often exceeding the national average by more than a dollar per gallon. Several factors contribute to this high price, including state taxes and fees, environmental requirements, special fuel requirements, and isolated petroleum markets.
The components of retail gasoline prices are taxes and fees, distribution and marketing, refining costs, and crude oil prices. Drivers in California pay the highest taxes at the pump, equivalent to $0.90 per gallon (gal) between local, state, and federal taxes as of March 2025.
Federal taxes—which are the same for each state—account for $0.18 of the $0.90/gal in taxes. The other $0.72/gal is made up of state excise tax ($0.60/gal), state sales tax ($0.10/gal), and an underground storage tank fee ($0.02/gal). California’s state gasoline excise tax is the highest in the United States; the average across all states is $0.28/gal.” Report at...
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65184
 
HERITAGE CAPITAL BLOG EXCERPT
“The key to everything is getting the VIX to fall significantly which it has. VIX below 30 makes things easier. VIX below 20 makes things on the easy side. Stocks are set to pullback this morning. After 9 straight up days, no one should be shocked. For now, I think weakness is buying opportunity, but I will also watch how strong the decline is.” – Paul Schatz, President Heritage Capital. Commentary at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/bears-still-hate-and-disavow/
 
UNUSUAL NEW LOWS SPIKE (McClellan Publications)
“The price low on April 8, 2025 was unusual because it coincided with the highest reading for stocks making a new 52-week low on the NYSE.  Usually the number of New Lows peaks before the final price low.
One point that is important to understand about the data for New Highs and New Lows is that the calculations employ intraday extremes.  And so even though the SP500 closed higher on April 9, it only did so after making a lower intraday low, which helped a lot of stocks push down to their own new 52-week lows.  But this is still a coincident event compared to other important stock market lows over the past 5 years shown in this chart.  Usually the highest reading for NYSE New Lows occurs several days ahead of the final price low.  So that is a missing component thus far for this current price decline.  It casts some doubt on the presumption that ‘the bottom is in’.” – Tom McClellan, Editor McClellan Market Report. Commentary at...
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/new_lows_spike_was_unusual_this_time/
 
FED RATE DECISION (CNBC)
“The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at the target range of 4.25% to 4.5% at the conclusion of its May meeting. The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee noted that “the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/07/fed-meeting-live-updates-traders-await-insight-from-powell-on-next-rate-cut-tariff-impact.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 5631.
-VIX declined about 5% to 23.55.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.269% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK-added 4/28
SPY-added 4/28
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) a Bullish indication (I consider 5 neutral) - the 10-dMA of the spread continued higher – also a bullish sign. 
 
Indicators are still well to the bullish side suggesting that the Tariff puzzle will be solved with little pain to the markets.  Risk remains off. I am fully invested at 50% in stocks.  I would go higher if there was more clarity. Markets climb a “wall-of-worry.” This time Trump’s Tariffs are increasing the worry level.
 
While I noted yesterday that I wouldn’t be surprised to see the S&P 500 retest its prior low. The indicators suggest otherwise, so a retest is not my prediction – it is just a worry.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, though perhaps warily. The markets may trade sideways for a while or drift down some to work off the bullish froth.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD.
(My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and
2023.

Tuesday, May 6, 2025

PMI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
HOW THE LIGHTS WENT OUT IN SPAIN (WSJ)
“Life changed for Spaniards at noon on Monday. With the sun at its peak, the country’s largely solar-powered electrical grid shut down. Mere days before, Spain’s government had announced that its grid had for the first time run entirely on renewable power, with new records set almost daily for solar. Breathless declarations of victory flowed, in service of the government’s promise to phase out reliable nuclear power plants with many years of remaining service life...  The grid collapse was the result of a series of brazen missteps by lawmakers. They disregarded warnings grounded in laws of physics. One could say that Spain flew too close to the sun, leaving its electrical grid exposed to imbalances that became impossible to stabilize.
Events will inevitably test any electrical system’s limits. A rational system should be designed to handle such events. Spain’s system was engineered politically, not rationally. It’s the latest lesson in how not to make energy policy. Will anyone learn from it?” - Messrs. Calzada and Fernández Ordóñez, senior fellows at the University of the Hesperides’ Peter Huber Center. WSJ at... 
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/how-the-lights-went-out-in-spain-solar-power-electric-grid-0096bbc7?mod=columnists_trendingnow_article_pos2
 
NON-MANUFACTURING PMI (Investing.com)
“The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reported an unexpected rise in the non-manufacturing sector, indicating an expansion in the economy...The actual PMI figure of 51.6 outperformed the forecasted figure of 50.2. This indicates a more robust expansion in the non-manufacturing sector than analysts had predicted.” Story at... 
https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-nonmanufacturing-sector-shows-unexpected-strength-ism-pmi-rises-to-516-93CH-4022308
 
"For me, it's pretty clear. You have Trump who's locked in on tariffs. You have the Fed who's locked in on not cutting rates. That's not good for the stock market...We'll probably go down to new lows, even when Trump dials back China to 50%." – Paul Tudor Jones, Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.8% to 5607.
-VIX rose about 5% to 24.76.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.298% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK-added 4/28
SPY-added 4/28
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined to +11 (11 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) a Bullish indication (I consider 5 neutral) - the 10-dMA of the spread continued higher – also a bullish sign. 
 
The chart above shows that when the daily spread of bull-bear indicators peaks and begins to fall, it is sometimes signaling a top that is followed by a retreat (big or small) or a stretch of flat market action. We don’t know which way the markets will go, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a retest of the prior low. Trump keeps coming out with new news every day.
 
Given the buy-signals after the bottom (90% up-volume day, Zweig Breath Thrust & Chart trend break) it is likely that any new low would be near the previous low. “Near” is likely to be within 3-4% of that low.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, though perhaps warily. The markets may trade sideways for a while or drift down.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD.
(My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.

Monday, May 5, 2025

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“The market and the economy have become hooked, become addicted, to excessive government spending and there’s going to be a detox period.” - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
  
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 5650.38.
-VIX rose about 4% to 23.64.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.349% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK-added 4/28
SPY-added 4/28
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 20 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)


TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to +16 (16 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators) a Bullish indication (I consider 5 neutral) - the 10-dMA of the spread continued higher – also a bullish sign.  Indicators continue to improve and are now clearly to the bull side.
 
The S&P 50 has been up 9 out of the last 10 days. This simple count is a way of looking at overbought conditions. It is one of my indicators that was bearish today.  The overbought/oversold ratio was also bearish. These indicators suggest a slowing and possibly a retreat of the markets. The smart money knows this and the Smart Money indicator is now bearish too. The Smart Money waits until the afternoon to make moves, so my Smart Money indicator simply tracks whether the late-day action was up or down. (The original Smart Money indicator was developed by Don Hayes and it keeps a running total of the gain between the first half hour and the gain in the last half hour. The Dumb Money trades early.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, though perhaps warily. The markets may trade sideways for a while or drift down.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY.
(My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
 

Friday, May 2, 2025

Jobs Report ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“I represent the base and when I'm frustrated and upset over the direction of things, you better be clear, the base is not happy...I campaigned for no more foreign wars. And now we are supposedly on the verge of going to war with Iran. I don't think we should be bombing foreign countries on behalf of other foreign countries especially when they have their own nuclear weapons and massive military strength." – Marjorie Taylor Green.
OMG! The base is abandoning Trump?
 
JOBS REPORT (CNN)
“America’s long-resilient job market continues to defy expectations — even in the wake of swirling uncertainty. The US economy added a surprisingly strong 177,000 jobs in April, a slight slowdown from March’s downwardly revised 185,000 gains...”
https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/02/economy/what-to-expect-from-fridays-jobs-report
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 1.5% to 5687.
-VIX slipped about 8% to 22.58.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.306% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK-added 4/28
SPY-added 4/28
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 4 gave Bear-signs and 18 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to +14 (14 more Bull-indicators than Bear-indicators) a Bullish indication (I consider 5 neutral) - the 10-dMA of the spread continued higher – also a bullish sign.  Indicators continue to improve and are now clearly to the bull side.
 
Markets have continued to rebound; the S&P 500 is now down about 7.4% from its all-time high on 19 February. That’s about 2% above its 50-dMA. Breadth still hasn’t gotten too strong, so we will be very curious to see what the numbers look like if the S&P 500 makes new all-time highs.
 
Markets liked the Jobs Report today. That’s all we need to say except for one caution; jobs are a lagging indicator and will be late to signal a recession.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, though slowing or retreat should be expected. I added XLK and SPY Monday and I remain about 50% in stocks, my conservative "Fully Invested" position.
 

Thursday, May 1, 2025

Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (CNBC)
“Initial unemployment claims posted an unexpected increase last week in a potential trouble sign for the wobbling U.S. economy. First-time filings for unemployment insurance totaled a seasonally adjusted 241,000 for the week ended April 26, up 18,000 from the prior period and higher than the Dow Jones estimate for 225,000...” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/01/weekly-jobless-claims-surge-to-241000.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 5604.
-VIX slipped about 0.4% to 24.6.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.212% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK-added 4/28
SPY-added 4/28
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)




TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to +11 (11 more Bull-indicators than Bear-indicators) a Bullish indication (I consider 5 neutral) - the 10-dMA of the spread continued higher – also a bullish sign.  Indicators continue to improve and are now clearly to the bull side.
 
Thursday, unchanged volume was very high. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back down? That could always happen but the indicators don’t suggest it now. Perhaps, the best we can say is that investors are confused. “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.
 
One can always worry that this bounce is just that – a bounce in a bear-market decline.  So far, the indicators have been extreme enough to suggest that the bottom was 4983 on 8 April. (Long-Term indicator BUY- signal; Zweig Breadth Thrust; 90% up-volume day; the S&P 500 broke above its upper trendline.) However, we should recognize there is a possibility of further declines. If indicators reverse, I may take profits and get conservative again. So far, all-is-well.
 
I will be busy for the rest of the week – I’ll still post, but perhaps with shorter posts and published later I the day.

I haven't got a clue what is wrong with the alignment but I don't have time to troubleshoot...

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BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish, though perhaps warily. I added XLK and SPY Monday.