“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“The big money is not in the buying and selling. But in
the waiting.” - Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway
“People always ask me what is going on in the markets. It
is simple. Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders
of magnitude.” – Michael “Big Short” Burry.
“I never imagined that I would see the day that the
Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee would step forward to call for raw [Supreme]
court packing. It is a sign of our current political environment where rage
overwhelms reason.” - Professor Jonathan Turley, honorary Doctorate of Law from
John Marshall Law School for his contributions to civil liberties and the
public interest.
"This is one of the big problems with wokeness. That
what you say doesn't have to make sense or jibe with the facts, and a challenge
itself is equated with racism...Saying white power and privilege is at all
all-time high is just ridiculous. Higher than a century ago with the Tulsa race
massacre? Higher than the years when the KKK rode unchecked and Jim Crow went
unchallenged? Higher than the 1960s when the Supremes and Willie Mays could not
stay in the same hotel as the white people they were working with?...Having a
warped view of reality leads to policies that are warped.” – Bill Maher.
IHS MANUFACTURING/SERVICES PMI (IHS)
“U.S. private sector businesses registered a further marked
expansion in activity during June, as further easings of COVID-19 restrictions
boosted new orders. The rate of expansion softened slightly from the high seen
in May, but remained substantial overall. Adjusted for seasonal factors, the
IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index posted 63.9 in June, down from
68.7 in May, but nonetheless signalling a historically elevated rate of
expansion in output across the private sector.” Press release at...
https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/72d0041a981c420595341ef772405501
NEW HOME SALES (Reuters)
“Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell to a one-year
low in May as the median price of newly built houses soared amid expensive raw
materials, including framing lumber.” Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-new-home-sales-fall-one-year-low-may-2021-06-23/
EIA CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 7.6 million barrels from the
previous week. At 459.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
6% below the five year average for this time of year.” Press release at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
GLOBAL WARMING FRAUD PRESENTED IN PICTURES (MishTalk)
“When you want to mislead people with statistics picking the start date is very important...”
US Sea Level Since 1920
US Sea Level Since 1850
Sea Level Rising for 20,000 Years
Charts and discussion at...
https://mishtalk.com/economics/global-warming-fraud-exposed-in-pictures
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as
of 6:15 PM Wednesday. US total case numbers are on the left axis; daily numbers
are on the right side of the graph with the 10-dMA of daily numbers in Green.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 dipped
about 0.1% to 4242.
-VIX dropped about 2% to 16.32.
-The yield on the 10-year
Treasury dipped to 1.486%.
For the third day in a row, we
had high, unchanged-volume. In theory
this in an indication that investors are confused and it can signal a reversal.
Sometimes it’s true; sometimes not.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from -9 to -7 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum
that smooths the daily fluctuations dropped from -12 to -27. (These numbers
sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most
of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble remained HOLD. Volume, VIX, Price & Sentiment are neutral.
As of today’s close, the Index
is 1.3% above its 50-dMA and there are currently no top-indicators that are warning
of a top.
I am bullish, but I’d be
careful about getting too bullish. I see a lot more Pros calling for a 10-20%
correction and breadth (% stocks advancing on the NYSE) remains below 50% on a
10-day basis.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
Market Internals improved to NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
Using the Short-term indicator
in 2018 in SPY would have made a 5% gain instead of a 6% loss for buy-and-hold.
The methodology was Buy on a POSITIVE indication and Sell on a NEGATIVE
indication and stay out until the next POSITIVE indication. The back-test
included 13-buys and 13-sells, or a trade every 2-weeks on average.
As of 25 May, my
stock-allocation is about 50% invested in stocks. I am not super bullish, but I
am not bearish either so 50% is a reasonable allocation for me.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees. As a
retiree, 50% in the stock market is about fully invested for me – it is a
cautious and conservative number. If I feel very confident, I might go to 60%;
if a correction is deep enough, and I can call a bottom, 80% would not be out
of the question.
The markets have not
retested the lows on recent corrections and that left me under-invested on the
bounces. I will need to put less reliance on retests in the future.
