VIX was down over 2% today; that’s good news. It still needs to be watched, though.
Sentiment is OK. Our sentiment indicator is a mildly elevated 52% Bulls. The NTMS sentiment indicator is set to call a sell at 66% Bulls. The significance of reasonable sentiment is that there is room for further improvement in the market.
So far this year we have had 2-sell signals and the NTSM system is essentially even with the S&P 500. In Feb the drop was only 6.5%. In June the drop was 6%. Frankly, I have tried to set the NTMS system so that it does not call sell signals unless we expect a drop greater than 10%, but really, we can only set the indicators based on past history, so the Buy/Sell signals will always be somewhat loose. I am pleased to be even with the S&P’s performance (within ½% of even anyway). I would expect better results if we were to see a significant correction. NTMS needs volatility to work best.
The NTMS was neutral today at Hold.
I remain 50% invested. That is my fully invested position for the time being.
