Consensus estimates for this report had an increase of 105k jobs. The non-farm payroll report reflected an increase of a mere 18k.
The unemployment rate moved higher to 9.2% from 9.1%.
The average workweek declined by .1 hour to 34.3 hours.
Private payrolls did increase by 57k jobs but that was nowhere close to the expected increase of 125k jobs. Public payrolls declined by 39k.
The market responded by moving down 0.7%.
The market responded by moving down 0.7%.
Breadth (advancing vs. declining stocks) continues to get worse on a long term basis. That’s not healthy since it shows that the number of stocks advancing is falling even as the market has continued upward.
The Navigate the Stock Market analysis remains HOLD which is its neutral position.
We can only guess whether it will turn up or down.
I remain 50% invested. That is my fully invested position for the time being.
WARNING...Political Rant: I am an independent voter so I have problems with both republicans and democrats, but I think the republicans have reached a new low during the “debt negotiations.” They are a bunch of lying ideologues when they state that we must cut spending instead of raising taxes in order to save jobs and the economy. What they know, but won't say, is that cuts in spending will hurt the economy just as much as raising taxes.
If the Government cuts defense spending and doesn't buy as many tanks, what happens? The tank manufacturers will lay off workers, jobs will obviously be lost, and the economy will suffer. It makes no difference whether the Gov't cuts a trillion dollars of spending or increases taxes by a trillion dollars, there will be negative impacts to the economy.
I worked in Government long enough to know that we will need both tax increases and spending cuts to dig our way out of this hole.
If the Government cuts defense spending and doesn't buy as many tanks, what happens? The tank manufacturers will lay off workers, jobs will obviously be lost, and the economy will suffer. It makes no difference whether the Gov't cuts a trillion dollars of spending or increases taxes by a trillion dollars, there will be negative impacts to the economy.
I worked in Government long enough to know that we will need both tax increases and spending cuts to dig our way out of this hole.
From the perspective of this Blog, the Debt negotiations may bring a significant change in the stock market. It could be down, as traders worry that spending cuts and/or increased taxes will bring about a double dip recession...or perhaps there will be no deal. Maybe it will be up, and we’ll have a relief rally. I’m not making a prediction either way – I will watch how the market moves and use the NTSM model to give us an indication of the future market direction.
