The
NTSM model improved slightly at Friday’s close.
Some further up movement may switch it to Buy, however, that will not
change my invested position because I am already fully invested on the long
side…at least until the Debt negotiations are resolved.
Here’s
an excerpt from last Monday’s weekly Market Commentary by John Hussman,
PhD. He wrote, “The
overall market picture continues to have the look of a broad topping process,
in which it's very common to see the market confined to a trading range of
about 5-7% for 6-8 months. Still, our investment position isn't driven by the
expectation of an oncoming bear market, and we'll remain flexible to changes in
the ensemble of market conditions.” - John P. Hussman, Ph.D., 18 July 2011 Weekly
Market Comment, http://www.hussmanfunds.com, used with
permission.
I
couldn’t agree more. The reversals we’ve
seen in the NTSM system have indicated a lack of direction in the market for
several months. That may change (for
better or worse) depending on what the clowns in Washington manage to work out
to solve the National debt.
I
am not at all convinced this will end well.
With only 50% invested now, I have some cash available if we get a big
pull back that looks like a buying opportunity.
It also provides some protection if the pullback looks like more than a short
term event. If we get a Harry Potter
ending (happy), I’ll miss the first day or two of the rally – I can live with
that.
NTSM
is HOLD today. Since we had a previous
Buy indicator we are holding long. (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” –
the link is on the right side of this page).
I remain 50% invested. That is my fully invested position for the time being.
