The
S&P 500 ended up about 3% today to 1241 on normal, non-Holiday volume. VIX was down 7% to 23.22.
So
we got some good news today; add in technicals,(the major indices were at their
lower support lines which probably woke-up the buy-the-dip crowd); throw in
some short covering and what a day. The TV
talking heads breathlessly reported that we haven’t had that big a move since
forever (10 October by my count); but really we had a 2.92% up day at the end
of November so this isn’t that unusual.
The
Morgan Stanley Cyclical index (^CYC) outperformed the S&P 500 by 0.8% and
that is good. That is something to watch
since we expect the ^CYC will outperform the S&P if investors are betting that the
economy will avoid recession.
Today’s
big move up raises a caution flag; can the S&P 500 get above its recent high of 1261 on 7 December? I’ll watch that too, and earnings. Oracle missed today. They never miss so we'll need to pay attention to earnings. Plenty of worries on a good-day.
The
NTSM analysis moved back up to a BUY today.
I
bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct
NTSM buy signal. I remain 100% long in
the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use
the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
I
am 90% long in the trading portfolio…and still cautiously optimistic.
Just
a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational
folks. Don’t do it unless you have a
high tolerance for risk.
