Turns
out the Navigate the Stock Market system is beating the average Hedge Fund. From CNN/Money at: http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/05/markets/hedge_funds_pensions/index.htm?iid=HP_River
.
NTSM is beating the S&P 500 by about 12% at present.
Today,
Monday, the S&P 500 went up 0.1% while the VIX rose another 1%. As I said yesterday, that’s an indication
that the Options market is not sold on the direction of the market since the
VIX usually moves opposite to the S&P.
The
rise in VIX may indicate options buying in advance of the European summit which
should wrap-up with a solution to the Euro-mess Friday and then we won’t have
to worry about it anymore. Hardly! This probably isn’t the end by any means and
we are likely to see no clear cut resolution so it may be more of the same
muddling around.
That
may be good for the stock market though.
It likes muddling compared to disaster and disaster is the result some
are suggesting if the Euro collapses since it will leave European banks owed a
lot of money by the weaker sisters in the Euro.
The fear is systemic bank failure over there with contagion of some sort
spreading here. Most US banks apparently
are in good enough shape to handle it, at least that is my take on the
consensus from various sources and I’m not too confident about that. So it’s hard to know how to play this. Greece is likely to fail, but is it going to happen soon or further down the road?
At
present, my plan is to stay fully invested and follow the guidance of the NTSM
system.
The NTSM analysis remains BUY.
I
bought back into the stock market at S&P 500, 1155 on 7 Oct after the 6 Oct
NTSM buy signal. I remain 100% long in
the long term portfolio (100% stocks in the 401k.). (See the page “How to Use
the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this page).
I
am 90% long in the trading portfolio.
Just
a reminder: 100% invested in stocks is way too much for most rational
folks. Don’t do it unless you have a
high tolerance for risk.
