“Jason Goepfert, founder of Sundial Capital Research and author of the SentimenTrader Daily Report, said there have been a cluster of five Hindenburg Omens over the past few weeks…
[The Hindenburg omen is a series of stock market
technical indicators that supposedly signal trouble ahead. I say, supposedly, because the data shows the
market is usually down after the omen, but not always by a huge amount. - MS]
“…That’s a heavy concentration that we haven’t seen too
many other times over a span of nearly 50 years,” Goepfert wrote in his Monday
report. “And when we have, it hasn’t been good.”… “The last two big clusters of
Omens occurred in the spring of 2000 and the summer/fall of 2007,” he said.
“Those were excellent heads-up of looming trouble, but prior to that it was
nothing but hot air.”
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/06/11/hindenburg-omen-more-than-just-hot-air/
CASS FREIGHT INDEX – ECONOMIC INDICATORS MIXED (Cass
Information Systems)
“North American shipment volume rebounded in May, while
expenditures remained almost unchanged. This seems an accurate reflection of
the mixed results in the freight sector and the economy overall. Unemployment
is declining, yet job creation is still weak. GDP growth is stronger than last
year; however the manufacturing sector is slowing. Inventories are slowly
eroding, but inventory‐to‐sales ratios are creeping up.
Ports are reporting increased container traffic, which is in line with
increased shipments domestically. Exports and imports have moved up and down in
2013, but are currently lower than at the end of 2012.” Report available from…http://www.cassinfo.com/Transportation-Expense-Management/Supply-Chain-Analysis/Cass-Freight-Index.aspx
SENTIMENT
In the Guggenheim/Rydex finds I track for the Sentiment
indicator in the NTSM analysis, 67% of traders are betting on positive returns
for the markets. That’s a 5-day moving
average and it is an extreme value that indicates that a topping process is
underway. When 2 out of every 3
investors think the market is going up – it usually doesn’t.
MARKET RECAP
Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed down about 1% to 1626 (rounded).
VIX was up about 11% to 17.01 so the options
boys are getting concerned again.Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed down about 1% to 1626 (rounded).
The next big test will be an S&P 500 retreat to the
lower trend line, now at about 1610. The
S&P 500 may bounce there again. If
it falls thru 1610, that will be bad for the markets and may precipitate some
serious selling.
MARKET INTERNALS
Tuesday less than 15% of stocks advanced on the
NYSE. There were only 34 new-highs with 263
new-lows. These ugly numbers suggest
further downside ahead.
NTSM
Tuesday, the overall NTSM analysis was HOLD at the close.
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5 March (S&P 500
-1540). My reasoning may be found at…(although
that probably looks pretty lame by now.)http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2013/03/why-i-got-mostly-out-of-stock-market.html
The NTSM system sold at 1575 on 16 April. (This is just another reminder that I should follow the NTSM analysis and not act emotionally – I am under-performing my own system by about 2%!)
I have no problems leaving 20% or 30% invested. If the market is cut in half (worst case) I’d
only lose 10%-15% of my investments. It
also hedges the bet if I am wrong since I will have some invested if the market
goes up. No system is perfect.
